In this era of change and innovation, the future prospects of the Bitcoin ecosystem are particularly important. On the evening of May 23rd, OKLink was invited by the industry media Chain Catcher to participate in a live discussion on the theme of “BTC Ecosystem Outlook”. The discussion analyzed and forecasted from the perspective of on-chain data analysis, revealing insights through data trends.
What sets the fourth halving apart from the past?
With the continuous growth of the BTC ecosystem since 2023, the activity of the Bitcoin network is significantly different from the last halving. The block reward has been reduced to 3.125 BTC.
According to OKLink’s miner income data, the total income of miners usually decreases after halving, but then increases again because miners receive not only block rewards but also transaction fees. Due to the significant increase in trading volume before and after the halving, miners are earning more fees. Generally, block rewards are much higher than transaction fees. However, during this halving period, the fees received by miners exceeded block rewards for the first time, accounting for about 70% of total income.
Although this is a temporary phenomenon, it at least proves that the transaction fee growth brought about by Bitcoin’s on-chain activity is theoretically sufficient to provide sustained positive incentives for the mining community, regardless of block rewards.
To ensure the continuation of this phenomenon, it is necessary for on-chain activity to remain sufficiently active, which requires more on-chain applications like Bitcoin Runes that can attract market attention and create incremental value. From this perspective, BTC halving will to some extent promote the development of the BTC on-chain ecosystem and may become a “catalyst” for accelerating ecological innovation. However, as the BTC ecosystem continues to thrive, the future impact of BTC halving on the market will become smaller and smaller.
Which data is more worthy of attention in the future of BTC?
Trading volume is a barometer of market enthusiasm, reflecting the strong interest of investors or the surge of speculative sentiment during periods of significant increase, and vice versa.
The number of active addresses and the growth of decentralized applications (DApps) can provide information about the actual use and adoption of cryptocurrencies. According to OKLink’s browser data, the average active addresses of BTC account for 1.43% of the total number of addresses, higher than Ethereum’s 0.66%. The daily new address count for BTC has remained around 300,000 since 2016. Data is the key to decision-making.
How does data help the development of the BTC ecosystem?
The BTC ecosystem is one of OKLink’s key focuses, and it is actively developing support for Bitcoin Layer2, as well as cross-chain transaction data between Layer 1 and Layer 2.
OKLink already supports 44 public chains, including all BTC inscriptions NFTs, tokens, transaction lists, and transaction details. Users can easily query address details, historical transactions, and more. It also provides a variety of integrated data analysis tools, including large transaction alerts, real-time gas fee statistics, on-chain indicators analysis, trading volume, holdings, and mining power analysis, allowing users to intuitively view the trends and changes in data and quickly obtain key information.
Furthermore, it provides more key data about BTC inscriptions, such as inscription token information, inscription trades, and inscription listings. Currently, it supports Runes, BRC-20, ARC-20, SRC-20, BRC20-S, and Ordinals NFTs.
In a market full of uncertainties, data is the ultimate weapon for decision-making. The objectivity, accuracy, and analyzability of data are its strengths, helping us better understand the market performance after halving and make judgments about future trends.
