EMC Labs Bitcoin Weekly Observations Building Momentum Waiting for Interest Rate Cut Breakout

Original Author: Shang2046
The information, opinions, and judgments mentioned in this report regarding markets, projects, currencies, etc., are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.


BTC chips continue to accumulate between 66,000 and 70,000, market breakthrough may only require a clear rate cut expectation
Market for a week
Last week, BTC once approached the historical high of 73,000 US dollars, reaching a high of 71,974 US dollars. It ended with a rapid adjustment from the high point, closing above 69,000 US dollars. The weekly volatility was only 6.5%, with an increase of 2.8%.
The failure to hit highs is still closely related to US economic data. The US non-farm data released on June 8 showed an unexpected increase in job positions, adding more uncertainty to rate cut expectations. However, it must be pointed out that the US unemployment rate also unexpectedly increased, indicating that the signal of US economic recession is still clear. There are also reports that most of the new jobs in the US are taken up by immigrants and illegal immigrants, and the actual US data is not optimistic.
In any case, the market is still waiting for the other shoe to drop. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting held on June 12 will provide further signals. We believe that the probability of a rate cut before September is still high.
Before that, the cryptocurrency market may react in advance 1-2 months. On June 4, the US Fidelity ETF, which has always been ranked second in fund inflows, had a net inflow of 800 million US dollars in a single day, which also indirectly indicated the intentions of some mainstream US institutions.
Supply and demand structure
Last week, we pointed out that through on-chain data, the range of 60,000 to 73,000 US dollars has become the largest accumulation range of BTC chips, totaling about 3 million. Currently, this accumulation range has been further clarified to be between 66,000 and 70,000 US dollars. In this range, there is an accumulation of 2.43 million chips. This range can be seen as a relatively strong support level.
On June 4, the US ETF had a net inflow of 887 million US dollars, setting the second largest net inflow record since January; last week, US ETFs had an overall net inflow of 1.829 billion US dollars, the largest net inflow week since March. The Hong Kong BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of about 42 million US dollars last week, maintaining a total of 290 million US dollars, similar to the scale at the end of April.
In terms of inflow of USD stablecoins, it has continued to be relatively stable over the past month, with a net inflow of 270 million US dollars. It is still far from the very high net inflows in March and April. Overall, stablecoins currently have total assets of 150.5 billion US dollars, not far from the 162 billion US dollars of the last bull market. If we consider the net inflow of about 15 billion US dollars from US ETFs, it has already surpassed the previous bull market.
However, for this bull market to truly break through, stablecoins still need to increase further.
As of May 26, the centralized exchanges held 2.31 million chips, a decrease of 20,000 chips from last week. At the same time, short-term investors holding coins for less than 5 months held 3.32 million chips, an increase of 10,000 chips from last week; while long-term investors holding coins for over 5 months held 14.1 million chips, an increase of 14,000 chips; overall, the market shows a continuous accumulation of chips, and the actions of short-term and long-term investors are consistent.
In terms of market costs, the cost for short-term investors has further increased to 63,500 US dollars, with a floating profit of about 9%. This profit is at a relatively low level in the bull market, and there is very limited short-term selling pressure. On the other hand, the average holding cost of the US spot ETF has also slightly increased to 58,287 US dollars, with a profit margin of about 19%.
In terms of buying volume on centralized exchanges, it increased from 3.6 billion US dollars two weeks ago to 5.6 billion US dollars.
EMC BTC Cycle Indicator
The eMerge data engine shows that the market is in a bull market acceleration phase, with an EMC BTC Cycle indicator strength of 0.63.
About EMC Labs
EMC Labs (Emerging Labs) was founded by cryptocurrency investors and data scientists in April 2023. It focuses on blockchain industry research and crypto secondary market investments, with industry foresight, insights, and data mining as core competencies, dedicated to participating in the thriving blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets for the benefit of humanity.
For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund