Research Report on the Sentiment of the Cryptocurrency Market (2024.05.10–05.17): Bitcoin Surges Instantly After Early Leakage of US CPI Data

US CPI data leaked 30 minutes early, causing an immediate surge in Bitcoin price
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) stated in a recent announcement that it accidentally uploaded some files to its website about 30 minutes before the official release of CPI and real income data for April. The CPI data met expectations, and at 20:00 Beijing time, Bitcoin immediately surged from $62,627 to $64,200. After the data was released, it continued to rise to a high of $66,600, experiencing a short-term increase of about 6%. This indicates that the flames of interest rate cuts are growing stronger!
There are about 27 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (June 13, 2024).
Market Technical and Sentiment Analysis
Emotional Analysis Composition
Technical Indicators
Price Trends
In the past week, BTC price increased by +3.43% while ETH price decreased by -3.01%.
The chart above shows the price trend of BTC in the past week.
The chart above shows the price trend of ETH in the past week.
The table shows the price change rate in the past week.
Price-Volume Distribution (Support and Resistance)
In the past week, BTC price broke through the dense trading zone upward, while ETH price broke through and then fell back into the dense trading zone.
The chart above shows the distribution of dense trading zones for BTC in the past week.
The chart above shows the distribution of dense trading zones for ETH in the past week.
The table shows the dense trading zones for BTC and ETH in the past week.
Trading Volume and Open Interest
In the past week, BTC and ETH had the highest trading volume during the release of the non-farm payroll data on May 15. Both BTC and ETH experienced a slight increase in open interest.
The chart above shows the price trend of BTC at the top, followed by the trading volume, and the bottom is the open interest. The light blue represents the 1-day average, and the orange represents the 7-day average. The colors of the candlestick represent the current state, where green indicates price increase with trading volume support, red indicates closing positions, yellow indicates slow accumulation of positions, and black indicates crowded conditions.
The chart above shows the price trend of ETH at the top, followed by the trading volume, and the bottom is the open interest. The light blue represents the 1-day average, and the orange represents the 7-day average. The colors of the candlestick represent the current state, where green indicates price increase with trading volume support, red indicates closing positions, yellow indicates slow accumulation of positions, and black indicates crowded conditions.
Historical Volatility and Implied Volatility
In the past week, the highest historical volatility for BTC and ETH was observed when they experienced a decline on May 10. The implied volatility for BTC increased, while ETH decreased.
The yellow line represents historical volatility, the blue line represents implied volatility, and the red dots represent the 7-day average.
Event-Driven
In terms of events, the US CPI data met expectations, and after the data was accidentally leaked 30 minutes early, Bitcoin’s price surged, while Ethereum surged and then fell back.
Sentiment Indicators
Momentum Sentiment
In the past week, among Bitcoin, gold, Nasdaq, Hang Seng, and HS300, Bitcoin showed the strongest momentum, while HS300 performed the worst.
The chart above shows the trends of different assets in the past week.
Lending Rates and Borrowing Sentiment
In the past week, the average annualized lending yield for USD was 11.6%, and the short-term interest rate decreased to about 7.9%.
The yellow line represents the highest price of USD interest rates, the blue line represents 75% of the highest price, and the red line represents the 7-day average of 75% of the highest price.
The table shows the average returns for different holding periods of USD interest rates.
Funding Rates and Contract Leverage Sentiment
In the past week, the average annualized return for BTC funding rates was 6.5%, and the sentiment for contract leverage remained low.
The blue line represents the funding rate for BTC on Binance, and the red line represents the 7-day average.
The table shows the average returns for different holding periods of BTC funding rates.
Market Correlation and Consistency Sentiment
In the past week, the correlation among the selected 129 coins increased to about 0.62, and the consistency between different varieties continued to rise.
The blue line represents the Bitcoin price, and the green line represents the overall correlation among [‘1000floki’, ‘1000lunc’, ‘1000pepe’, ‘1000shib’, ‘1000zxec’, ‘1inch’, ‘aave’, ‘ada’, ‘agix’, ‘algo’, ‘ankr’, ‘ant’, ‘ape’, ‘apt’, ‘arb’, ‘ar’, ‘astr’, ‘atom’, ‘audio’, ‘avax’, ‘axs’, ‘bal’, ‘band’, ‘bat’, ‘bch’, ‘bigtime’, ‘blur’, ‘bnb’, ‘btc’, ‘celo’, ‘cfx’, ‘chz’, ‘ckb’, ‘comp’, ‘crv’, ‘cvx’, ‘cyber’, ‘dash’, ‘doge’, ‘dot’, ‘dydx’, ‘egld’, ‘enj’, ‘ens’, ‘eos’, ‘etc’, ‘eth’, ‘fet’, ‘fil’, ‘flow’, ‘ftm’, ‘fxs’, ‘gala’, ‘gmt’, ‘gmx’, ‘grt’, ‘hbar’, ‘hot’, ‘icp’, ‘icx’, ‘imx’, ‘inj’, ‘iost’, ‘iotx’, ‘jasmy’, ‘kava’, ‘klay’, ‘ksm’, ‘ldo’, ‘link’, ‘loom’, ‘lpt’, ‘lqty’, ‘lrc’, ‘ltc’, ‘luna 2’, ‘magic’, ‘mana’, ‘matic’, ‘meme’, ‘mina’, ‘mkr’, ‘near’, ‘neo’, ‘ocean’, ‘one’, ‘ont’, ‘op’, ‘pendle’, ‘qnt’, ‘qtum’, ‘rndr’, ‘rose’, ‘rune’, ‘rvn’, ‘sand’, ‘sei’, ‘sfp’, ‘skl’, ‘snx’, ‘sol’, ‘ssv’, ‘stg’, ‘storj’, ‘stx’, ‘sui’, ‘sushi’, ‘sxp’, ‘theta’, ‘tia’, ‘trx’, ‘t’, ‘uma’, ‘uni’, ‘vet’, ‘waves’, ‘wld’, ‘woo’, ‘xem’, ‘xlm’, ‘xmr’, ‘xrp’, ‘xtz’, ‘yfi’, ‘zec’, ‘zen’, ‘zil’, ‘zrx’].
Market Breadth and Overall Sentiment
In the past week, among the selected 129 coins, 30% had prices above the 30-day moving average, while only 17% of BTC prices were above the 30-day moving average. 10% of the coins had a distance from the lowest price in the past 30 days greater than 20%, and 33% had a distance from the highest price in the past 30 days less than 10%. The market breadth indicator for the past week shows that the overall market is slowly recovering from a weak phase.
The chart above shows the proportions of various breadth indicators for [‘bnb’, ‘btc’, ‘sol’, ‘eth’, ‘1000floki’, ‘1000lunc’, ‘1000pepe’, ‘1000sats’, ‘1000shib’, ‘1000zxec’, ‘1inch’, ‘aave’, ‘ada’, ‘agix’, ‘ai’, ‘algo’, ‘alt’, ‘ankr’, ‘ape’, ‘apt’, ‘arb’, ‘ar’, ‘astr’, ‘atom’, ‘audio’, ‘avax’, ‘axs’, ‘bal’, ‘band’, ‘bat’, ‘bch’, ‘bigtime’, ‘blur’, ‘cake’, ‘celo’, ‘cfx’, ‘chz’, ‘ckb’, ‘comp’, ‘crv’, ‘cvx’, ‘cyber’, ‘dash’, ‘doge’, ‘dot’, ‘dydx’, ‘egld’, ‘enj’, ‘ens’, ‘eos’, ‘etc’, ‘fet’, ‘fil’, ‘flow’, ‘ftm’, ‘fxs’, ‘gala’, ‘gmt’, ‘gmx’, ‘grt’, ‘hbar’, ‘hot’, ‘icp’, ‘icx’, ‘idu’, ‘imx’, ‘inj’, ‘iost’, ‘iotx’, ‘jasmy’, ‘jto’, ‘jup’, ‘kava’, ‘klay’, ‘ksm’, ‘ldo’, ‘link’, ‘loom’, ‘lpt’, ‘lqty’, ‘lrc’, ‘ltc’, ‘luna 2’, ‘magic’, ‘mana’, ‘manta’, ‘mask’, ‘matic’, ‘meme’, ‘mina’, ‘mkr’, ‘near’, ‘neo’, ‘nfp’, ‘ocean’, ‘one’, ‘ont’, ‘op’, ‘ordi’, ‘pendle’, ‘pyth’, ‘qnt’, ‘qtum’, ‘rndr’, ‘robin’, ‘rose’, ‘rune’, ‘rvn’, ‘sand’, ‘sei’, ‘sfp’, ‘skl’, ‘snx’, ‘ssv’, ‘stg’, ‘storj’, ‘stx’, ‘sui’, ‘sushi’, ‘sxp’, ‘theta’, ‘tia’, ‘trx’, ‘t’, ‘uma’, ‘uni’, ‘vet’, ‘waves’, ‘wif’, ‘wld’, ‘woo’, ‘xai’, ‘xem’, ‘xlm’, ‘xmr’, ‘xrp’, ‘xtz’, ‘yfi’, ‘zec’, ‘zen’, ‘zil’, ‘zrx’] over the past 30 days.
Summary
In the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) both increased after the leaked CPI data. However, Ethereum experienced a larger decline afterwards. Historical volatility reached its peak when both Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a decline on May 10. The trading volume reached its highest point during the leaked CPI data, and open interest saw a slight increase. Implied volatility increased for Bitcoin while it decreased for Ethereum. Funding rates remained low, and the market breadth indicator shows that the market is slowly recovering from a weak phase. In terms of events, the US CPI data met expectations, and after the data was released, Bitcoin and Ethereum immediately surged, indicating that the flames of interest rate cuts are growing stronger!
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