Author: Rainy Sleep Source: X, @0xSleepinRain
In this monthly update, after doing plenty of addition, this time I want to try the effect of subtraction. I will only discuss my thoughts on future market trends and some specific events (catalysts).
This cycle seems to only benefit meme coin gamblers. $WIF is alright, the price fluctuation of $PEPE is quite large, but very few people truly profit from it. Basic coins also show outstanding performance, but they are few and far between, like $PENDLE. If we were to select the annual buzzword, PVP would definitely be among them.
So, how should we proceed?
Firstly, here are some of my personal thoughts:
1. Fundamentals and Community
Are fundamentals important? I believe they are crucial.
I think current fundamentals should refer to the ability to “capture market attention.” The current fundamentals are closely related to project data, chips, community stickiness, marketing/KOL opinions, narratives/catalysts, and whether they can meet the core needs of the market. It is essential to look at a target asset more comprehensively.
For example, $PENDLE. I personally believe that Pendle excels in these aspects. In terms of fundamentals and narrative relevance, the initial rise was due to Pendle aligning with the LSD narrative, and this year Pendle has deepened its involvement in the LRT narrative, driving prices further up. This coordination with narratives keeps Pendle at the forefront of market attention. That is, when people discuss or intend to buy, they will think of Pendle.
I have also participated in Pendle’s community, and Pendle has done well in community stickiness and product education. For example, the @PendleIntern account does an excellent job, allowing users genuinely interested in Pendle’s products to learn about some strategies through this account, thereby formulating plans that better suit their financial situation.
I won’t delve into the marketing aspect too much, there are plenty of introductions on Twitter about Pendle that you can search for. In summary, these marketing materials are mostly based on logic, data, and product short articles, threads, and prints, rather than blind recommendations.
When dealing with most assets, we need to refer to these indicators.
2. Information Transmission
It is crucial to understand at which level of information transmission you are.
3. Market Sentiment
Learn to observe market sentiment. A specific method is to delve into the community, observe community members/community KOL statements, and check Twitter for what smart money is saying at market sentiment highs/lows.
You can establish your information flow to observe market sentiment at key time points.
Looking back at the market sentiment at the beginning of May, can you feel it?
A little tip: You can check out TikTok.
Also, remember to observe your own emotional fluctuations.
4. Practice Forecasting
Many articles on GCR mention this, so I won’t go into detail here, you can search for more information.
Now let’s discuss some assets that I am more optimistic about:
Secondly, ETH ETF
ETH ETF is great, no need for many words. Apart from leverage, the best Beta for ETH is assets with ETH in their names, like $ETHFI $ENS. (I won’t recommend $ENA, $ETC is an exception, but the halving event has ended). Although I hold $LDO and its fundamentals and circulation situation are quite good, considering its recent performance, I won’t recommend it (even though there has been a slight recovery recently).
Of course, the same goes for Pendle. However, I have already talked about Pendle many times this year, so I won’t go into detail here.
For memes, apart from $PEPE, you can look at $MOG, which is a meme that is quite popular overseas.
Regarding ETH DeFi-related assets, I would consider $MKR. $MKR’s future catalysts are: split+SubDAO (another point worth noting is the collaboration between MakerDAO and Ethena).
As for Beta, you can wait for ETH to truly start rising before chasing.
Let’s talk a bit more about Layer2.
1. BaseChain
I have invested in $DEGEN on BaseChain, whether it will be profitable remains to be seen. We can look forward to what will happen on BaseChain when Coinbase launches its smart wallet. For projects that can generate cash flow for the long term, we should always keep an eye on them.
Pay attention to opportunities on the BaseChain, such as the gaming sector on it (such as Aavegotchi $GHST). Aavegotchi’s Layer3, built on Base, is expected to launch its mainnet in Q2 of this year. It might happen this month.
2. Arbitrum
Arbitrum’s community “2 billion ARB gaming catalyst plan” proposal vote is likely to pass. This event is definitely beneficial for Arbitrum’s gaming ecosystem (such as TreasureDAO).
There is also an expectation for a Layer3 from $MAGIC in the future. On April 22nd, TreasureDAO already launched a Layer3 testnet, and it is expected to launch its mainnet in Q3 of this year, supporting staking on the mainnet.
Furthermore, Radiant may be impacted by LayerZero’s coin issuance and v3 upgrade (which has already been hyped several times), potentially leading to a short-term increase (which I am unlikely to participate in).
Thirdly, AI
I will only discuss two assets in the AI sector with confirmed catalysts:
$FET
The merger is scheduled to take place on 6.11/6.13, after which it will be renamed to $ASI.
$AR
Information related to $AO will be released on 6.13, participants can mine $AO through $AR.
I am slightly more optimistic about $AR.
There are many other coins in the AI sector, but I won’t go into detail about them one by one. The market sentiment in the AI sector will change based on external factors. However, I won’t consider participating in $WLD.
Fourthly, Political Memes
I have only participated in $MAGA in political memes on-chain. I bought in at 35 yesterday and I am prepared to hold for a while. I will pay attention to the sentencing hearing on 7.11 (Trump’s birthday is also approaching).
On CEX, the political meme is $PEOPLE, and I have set a $1 billion market value target for $PEOPLE.
For tokens with significant price fluctuations, my outlook articles may have some lag. Therefore, when you see Trump actively vying for crypto voters, or unexpected events like the approval of the ETH ETF, we should realize that politics will become a mainstream narrative in the market. Early entry is key.
Fifthly, Can Solana break new highs?
Initially, my thought was that $SOL might be affected by the dominance of $ETH (parasitism).
Now I have changed my mind: Solana’s property as a meme coin gambling venue (referring to those celebrity memes, most people would choose to issue memecoins on Solana), and the current market’s demand for meme coin gambling, lead me to believe that $SOL will not be heavily affected during this period – the crowds for $ETH and $SOL are already separated, and people playing on $SOL are unlikely to easily migrate to $ETH. Instead, an increase in $ETH will raise market expectations, driving market sentiment to new highs, and Solana will be the beneficiary.
Lastly, Others
1. Selfchain Mainnet
I was hurt by this asset ($FRONT) last year, so I won’t look at it.
2. Fantom Sonic
Currently, the launch of the Sonic mainnet by Fantom is a Sell News event for $FTM traders. Keep an eye on the follow-up actions after the AC launches, something has to happen on top of it (my expectation).
3. Uniswap “Fee Switch Mechanism” Vote
It has been postponed. The reason might be pressure from a VC on Uniswap. I will keep an eye on this matter (as a bystander), but I probably won’t participate in the speculation of $UNI.
4. June is also a month of airdrops, so we need to be cautious of the risks.
Cryptocurrency Events in June, sourced from Layergg
Mark your Crypto events!
3 June: $CEEK – CEEK 3.0
3 June: $DUSK – €3.5M Bond Offering
4 June: $MINA – Berkeley upgrade
4 June: $MPL – SyrupFi Launch Webinar
5 June: $ATOM – V17 Upgrade
5 June: Coinbase Smart wallet Launch
6 June: $FRONT – Selfchain Mainnet
10 June: $RNDR – Apple WWDC 2024
10 June: $ZKJ – Polyhedra Staking
11 June: $FET – ASI Merge
12 June: U.S. – CPI
13 June: $STX – Stacks showcase
13 June: Bithumb – Delisting Decision $ALEX
13 June: $AR – AO token Launch
14 June: $CHZ – Euro 2024 starts
14 June: $CYBER – Mainnet Staking
18 June: Bithumb – Delisting Decision $GALA
18 June: $XLM – Mainnet upgrade vote
19 June: $FLOW – Testnet Network Upgrade
20 June: $BNB – Tycho hard fork
24 June: $MTL – Snapshot
25 June: $BTT – Halving of BTFS Storage Rewards
25 June: $SD – Mega burn
26 June: $THETA – Edge Node client Release
26 June: $FLUX – Fluxedge Alpha Public
27 June: 1st Trump/Biden debate
28 June: $VET – VeBetterDAO Mainnet
Token Generation Event
June 5: Taiko @taikoxyz
June 6: Ultiverse @UltiverseDAO
June 13: zkSync @zksync
June 20: Lista @lista_dao
June 26: Blast @Blast_L2
TBD: LayerZero @LayerZero_Labs
TBD: Avail @AvailProject
TBD: Swell @swellnetworkio
Token Unlock
$APT – $100M June 12
$STRK – $80M June 15
$ARB – $100M June 16
$UNI – $90M June 16
$OP – $80M June 30
Major Announcement
Ethereum spot ETF Launch
$FTM – $S Rebranding
$UNI – Fee switch Approval
$GAL – $G Rebranding
$APE – Apechain Mainnet
$GHST – Gotchichain Mainnet
$RDNT – Radiant V3
$ACE – Fusionist game Release
$AIOZ – AIOZ W3AI
