As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, cryptocurrency is emerging as a controversial and increasingly important topic for voters. How do voters view cryptocurrency in the political landscape? And what are their opinions on owning cryptocurrency? These two topics are becoming increasingly important leading up to the 2024 US election.
According to a survey conducted by Grayscale on voters for the 2024 US election (collected between April 30th and May 2nd, 2024), there is a general sense of uncertainty and concern about significant risks among voters before the June 2024 presidential debate between Biden and Trump. These concerns include ongoing conflicts in multiple regions, deepening political polarization, and persistent inflation in the US economy.
The two presidential candidates have painted contrasting visions of the future for the US, and nearly half of registered voters admit that they would prefer to replace the current candidates if given the opportunity. In this unpredictable political atmosphere, the importance of cryptocurrencies to voters is becoming increasingly evident, as seen in the latest survey conducted by The Harris Poll for Grayscale. Here are the key findings:
1. Given the macroeconomic trends and the growing maturity of Bitcoin as an asset, we observe that the relevance of Bitcoin is gradually increasing. Currently, nearly half of the voters (47%) expect their investment portfolios to include cryptocurrency, which is an increase compared to 40% at the end of last year.
2. Consistent with the initial findings of this year’s survey, participants still consider inflation as a core issue in the election (28%). This phenomenon once again confirms the potential value of assets like Bitcoin, which have transparent and fixed supply limits.
3. Trump has actively advocated for cryptocurrency in his campaign, and recently introduced cryptocurrency bills FIT 21 and SAB 121 have gained support from bipartisan members of Congress. The data from The Harris Poll further confirms that cryptocurrency has become a shared focus for both Republicans (18%) and Democrats (19%), with similar ownership rates.
4. Will November be the “Bitcoin election month”?
Interest in cryptocurrency is growing among voters. Grayscale believes that due to macro developments and the increasing maturity of Bitcoin as an asset, people’s attention to Bitcoin is constantly rising. In the past six months since the first phase of this survey, voter interest in Bitcoin has significantly increased (41% vs. 34% in November 2023) due to geopolitical tensions, inflation, and risks associated with the US dollar.
Of particular note, 28% of voters believe that inflation is a core issue in the current election, further highlighting the potential value of assets like Bitcoin with transparent and strict supply limits.
Furthermore, Grayscale added a series of questions to the survey to gain a deeper understanding of voters’ perspectives. The Harris Poll results show that significant events related to Bitcoin, such as the approval of the US Spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024 and the Bitcoin halving in April 2024, have increased voter interest in investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (18% and 20%, respectively). In particular, the approval of the Bitcoin ETF has made 9% of retired voters more interested in investing in Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies.
Chart 1: Increasing voter interest in Bitcoin
So far, 2024 has been a remarkable year for Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin reached an all-time high on March 13, 2024. Will November be the “Bitcoin election month”?
Chart 2: Bitcoin price surpassing previous election periods
Voters’ growing interest in cryptocurrency extends not only to Bitcoin but to a wider range of cryptocurrencies. This interest is reflected in both general interest and investors’ investment intentions. Nearly one-third of voters (32%) say they are more interested in learning about cryptocurrency investments or actually investing in cryptocurrencies since the beginning of this year. Compared to November 2023, voters are also more likely to see cryptocurrencies as good long-term investment opportunities (23% vs. 19%) and increasingly expect some of their investment portfolios to include cryptocurrencies (47% vs. 40%). This trend clearly demonstrates the growing significance of cryptocurrencies in the minds of investors.
Chart 3: Voters increasingly expect their investment portfolios to include cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrency is a bipartisan concern
Although Trump has embraced cryptocurrency more actively during his campaign, the data shows that cryptocurrency is a bipartisan concern, with similar ownership rates for Republicans (18%) and Democrats (19%).
When evaluating which political party is more favorable to the cryptocurrency industry, voters’ opinions are divided. An equal percentage of voters (30% each) believe that both the Democratic and Republican parties hold the most favorable positions on cryptocurrency policies. These survey results indicate that support for cryptocurrency is not clearly biased towards a particular political party but maintains a balance across the political spectrum. This view aligns with the recent bipartisan support in Congress for the SAB 121 resolution, which allows financial institutions to act as custodians of digital assets, potentially increasing accessibility for cryptocurrency investors.
However, it is worth noting that Republican voters often consider inflation and economic issues as the most urgent challenges facing the US (54%, compared to 33% of Democratic voters). Therefore, Republicans seem to place relatively more emphasis on issues closely related to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, such as inflation and economic conditions. In contrast, Democrats seem to be more concerned about issues such as gun violence, climate change, and income inequality. This difference may explain why Trump has emphasized the importance of cryptocurrency in recent campaign activities.
Chart 4: Most urgent single issues for each party
Conclusion
The US is facing multiple choices involving macroeconomic policy issues such as government deficits and debt, inflation and the independence of the Federal Reserve, and the positioning of the US on the global stage. The differences between the two candidates on these key issues will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the US dollar and Bitcoin.
As voter interest in cryptocurrency continues to grow, the future government’s stance on this emerging digital asset is highly anticipated. This is particularly important for young voters, as a staggering 62% of Generation Z and Millennial voters believe that cryptocurrency and blockchain technology will shape the future of finance.
With November approaching, a trend becomes increasingly clear: cryptocurrency is gradually becoming an issue that policymakers and 2024 election candidates cannot ignore.
Methodology
This survey was conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of Grayscale from April 30th to May 2nd, 2024, using their comprehensive product, Harris On Demand, to survey 1,768 adults (18 years and older) in the US who plan to participate in the 2024 presidential election. The data was weighted, as necessary, by age, gender, race/ethnicity, region, education level, marital status, household size, household income, employment status, and internet propensity to align with the actual population proportions and compared to the “Phase 1” data collected at the end of November 2023 using the same parameters. The accuracy of the sample data in this study is within plus or minus 2.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. This confidence interval will be wider among the target population of the survey.
