Author: Rainy Sleeper Source: X, @0xSleepinRain
In this month’s content, after doing enough addition, this time I want to try the effect of subtraction. I will only talk about my thoughts on future market trends and some specific timing of events (catalysts).
This cycle seems to only benefit meme coin gamblers. $WIF is alright, the price fluctuations of $PEPE are quite significant, but very few people actually profit from it. There are also some fundamentally strong coins, but they are few, like $PENDLE. If we were to choose a word of the year, PVP would definitely be one of them.
So, how should we proceed?
First, here are some of my personal thoughts:
1. Fundamentals and Community
Are fundamentals important? I believe they are crucial.
I think current fundamentals should refer to the ability to “grab market attention”. Fundamentals now are closely related to indicators such as project data, chips, community stickiness, marketing/KOL statements, narratives/catalysts, and whether they can meet market core needs. It is important to take a more comprehensive look at a target.
For example, $PENDLE. I personally believe that Pendle excels in these aspects. In terms of fundamentals and narrative relevance, the initial rise was due to Pendle fitting the LSD narrative. This year, Pendle has deeply engaged in the LRT narrative, pushing the price higher. This alignment with narratives keeps Pendle at the forefront of market attention. That is, when people discuss or intend to buy, they think of Pendle.
I have also participated in Pendle’s community, and Pendle has done well in terms of community stickiness and product education. For example, the @PendleIntern account is excellent, providing interested users with strategies to tailor their plans according to their financial situation.
I won’t delve into marketing, there are plenty of introductions to Pendle on Twitter, you can look them up. In summary, most marketing content is based on logic, data, and product short texts, threads, and prints, rather than blindly giving out tips.
When considering most targets, we need to refer to these indicators.
2. Information Transmission
It is important to understand which layer of information transmission you are in.
3. Market Sentiment
Learn to observe market sentiment, one specific method is to delve into the community, observe community members/community KOLs’ statements, and check Twitter for intelligent investors’ statements during market sentiment highs/lows.
You can establish your own information flow to observe market sentiment at key timing points.
Looking back at the market sentiment in early May, does it ring a bell?
Quick Tip: You can check out TikTok.
Also, remember to observe your own emotional fluctuations.
4. Practice Prediction
Many articles introducing GCR mention this, I won’t go into too much detail here, you can look it up.
Next, let’s talk about some of the targets I am quite bullish on:
2. ETH ETF
ETH ETF is great, no need for further explanation. Besides leveraged trading, the best beta for ETH are those targets with ETH in their names, like $ETHFI $ENS. (I won’t recommend $ENA, $ETC is alright, but the halving event has ended). Although I hold $LDO and its fundamentals and circulation are quite good, considering its performance in the past, I won’t recommend it (even though it has shown some signs of recovery recently).
Of course, the same goes for Pendle. However, I have talked about Pendle many times this year, so I won’t go into detail here.
As for meme coins, aside from $PEPE, you can also look at $MOG, which is a meme that is quite popular overseas.
In terms of ETH DeFi, I would consider $MKR. The future catalysts for $MKR include: splitting + SubDAO (another point worth noting is the collaboration between MakerDAO and Ethena).
As for beta, you can wait for ETH to truly start rising before jumping in.
Let’s talk a bit more about Layer2.
1. BaseChain
I have invested in $DEGEN on Base, whether it will be profitable remains to be seen. We can anticipate what will happen on BaseChain once Coinbase launches its smart wallet. For projects that can bring long-term cash flow to the project team, we should always keep an eye on them.
Pay attention to opportunities on the Base chain, such as the gaming sector (for example, Aavegotchi $GHST). Aavegotchi’s Layer3 built on Base will be launched in Q2 of this year. It might happen this month.
2. Arbitrum
The Arbitrum community’s “200 million ARB game catalyst plan” proposal should be approved. This will definitely be a positive for Arbitrum’s gaming ecosystem (like TreasureDAO).
There is also an expectation for a Layer3 for $MAGIC in the future. On April 22nd, TreasureDAO already launched the Layer3 testnet, and it is expected to release the mainnet in Q3 of this year, which will support staking.
Additionally, Radiant might be influenced by LayerZero’s coin issuance and v3 upgrade (which has been hyped a few times), there is a possibility of a short-term increase (I am unlikely to participate).
3. AI
I will only discuss two targets in the AI sector with confirmed catalysts:
$FET
The merger will take place on 6.11/6.13, and it will be renamed to $ASI.
$AR
Information related to $AO will be released on 6.13, participants can mine $AO using $AR.
I am more optimistic about $AR.
There are many other coins in the AI sector, I won’t go into each one. The market sentiment in the AI sector will change based on external factors. However, I won’t consider participating in $WLD.
Four. Political Meme
I only participate in $MAGA in political memes on the chain. I bought in at 35 yesterday and am prepared to hold and see. I will pay attention to the sentencing hearing on 7.11 (Trump’s birthday is coming up).
On CEX, the political meme is $PEOPLE, I have set a $1 billion market value target for $PEOPLE.
For tokens with high price volatility, my outlook articles may be somewhat lagging. Therefore, when we see Trump competing for crypto voters or unexpected events like the approval of the ETH ETF, we should realize that politics will become a mainstream narrative in the market. It’s better to get in early.
Five. Can Solana break new highs?
Initially, I thought $SOL might be affected by the strength of $ETH (siphoning).
Now I have changed my mind: Solana’s property as a meme coin casino is evident (referring to those celebrity memes, most people would choose to issue meme coins on Solana), and the current market demands meme coin gambling.
Therefore, I believe $SOL won’t be drained too much in this period – the people playing $ETH and $SOL have already been divided, those playing $SOL won’t easily switch to $ETH. Instead, the rise in $ETH will raise market expectations, drive market sentiment to highs, and Solana will benefit.
Six. Others
1. Selfchain Mainnet
I was burned by this target ($FRONT) last year, won’t look at it.
2. Fantom Sonic
Currently, the launch of the Sonic mainnet by Fantom is a sell news event for $FTM traders. Keep an eye on AC’s subsequent actions, once it’s launched, there should be some activity on it (my expectation).
3. Uniswap “Fee Mechanism Activation” Vote
Has been postponed. The reason might be pressure from a certain VC on Uniswap. I will keep an eye on this matter (as a bystander), but I probably won’t participate in the speculation of $UNI.
4. June is also a month of airdrops, so be cautious of risks.
Seven. Crypto June Events Calendar, from Layergg
Mark your Crypto events!
3 June: $CEEK – CEEK 3.0
3 June: $DUSK – €3.5M Bond Offering
4 June: $MINA – Berkeley upgrade
4 June: $MPL – SyrupFi Launch Webinar
5 June: $ATOM – V17 Upgrade
5 June: Coinbase Smart wallet Launch
6 June: $FRONT – Selfchain Mainnet
10 June: $RNDR – Apple WWDC 2024
10 June: $ZKJ – Polyhedra Staking
11 June: $FET – ASI Merge
12 June: U.S. – CPI
13 June: $STX – Stacks showcase
13 June: Bithumb – Delisting Decision $ALEX
13 June: $AR – AO token Launch
14 June: $CHZ – Euro 2024 starts
14 June: $CYBER – Mainnet Staking
18 June: Bithumb – Delisting Decision $GALA
18 June: $XLM – Mainnet upgrade vote
19 June: $FLOW – Testnet Network Upgrade
20 June: $BNB – Tycho hard fork
24 June: $MTL – Snapshot
25 June: $BTT – Halving of BTFS Storage Rewards
25 June: $SD – Mega burn
26 June: $THETA – Edge Node client Release
26 June: $FLUX – Fluxedge Alpha Public
27 June: 1st Trump/Biden debate
28 June: $VET – VeBetterDAO Mainnet
Token Generation Event
June 5: Taiko @taikoxyz
June 6: Ultiverse @UltiverseDAO
June 13: zkSync @zksync
June 20: Lista @lista_dao
June 26: Blast @Blast_L2
TBD: LayerZero @LayerZero_Labs
TBD: Avail @AvailProject
TBD: Swell @swellnetworkio
Token Unlock
$APT – $100M June 12
$STRK – $80M June 15
$ARB – $100M June 16
$UNI – $90M June 16
$OP – $80M June 30
Major Announcement
Ethereum spot ETF Launch
$FTM – $S Rebranding
$UNI – Fee switch Approval
$GAL – $G Rebranding
$APE – Apechain Mainnet
$GHST – Gotchichain Mainnet
$RDNT – Radiant V3
$ACE – Fusionist game Release
$AIOZ – AIOZ W3AI
