Author | Rainy Sleeper Source: X,@0xSleepinRain
In this month’s content, after doing enough addition, this time I want to try the effect of subtraction. I will only discuss my thoughts on the future market trend and some specific time points (catalysts) of certain events.
It seems that only memecoin gamblers can make money in this cycle. $WIF is okay, the price fluctuations of $PEPE are quite large, but very few people really profit from it. There are also some fundamentally strong coins, but they are few, like $PENDLE. If we were to choose the annual hot words, PVP would definitely be one of them.
So how should we proceed?
Firstly, here are some of my personal thoughts:
1. Fundamentals and Community
Are fundamentals important? I think they are very important.
I believe that current fundamentals should refer to the ability to “attract market attention”. The current fundamentals are closely related to project data, chips, community stickiness, marketing/KOL comments, narratives/catalysts, and whether they can meet the core needs of the market. To get a more comprehensive view of a project.
For example, $PENDLE. I personally think that Pendle has performed well in these aspects. In terms of the correlation between fundamentals and narratives, the initial rise was due to Pendle catering to the LSD narrative, and this year Pendle has been deeply involved in the LRT narrative, pushing the price further up. This coordination with narratives keeps Pendle at the forefront of market attention. That is, when people discuss or intend to buy, they will think of Pendle.
I have also participated in Pendle’s community, and Pendle has done well in community stickiness and product education. For example, the @PendleIntern account does a great job, allowing users who are truly interested in Pendle’s products to learn about some strategies through this account and formulate plans that are more suitable for their financial situation.
I won’t talk much about marketing, there is a lot of information about Pendle on Twitter that you can check out. In summary, most of the marketing content is not blindly calling for buys, but rather based on logic, data, and product short articles, threads, and prints.
When considering most projects, we need to refer to these indicators.
2. Information Transmission
It is important to understand at which layer of information transmission you are.
3. Market Sentiment
Learn to observe market sentiment. A specific method is to delve into the community, observe community members/community KOLs’ statements, and check out what those smart investors are saying on Twitter at market sentiment highs/lows.
You can establish your own information flow to observe market sentiment at key time points.
Looking back at the market sentiment in early May, did you get a sense of it?
Quick Tip: You can browse on TikTok.
Also, remember to observe your own emotional fluctuations.
4. Practicing Predictions
Many articles introducing GCR mention this, so I won’t go into detail here, you can search for more information.
Next, let’s talk about some projects that I am more optimistic about:
ETH ETF
ETH ETF is great, no need to say more. Besides leverage, the best Beta for ETH is projects with ETH in their names, like $ETHFI $ENS. (I won’t recommend $ENA, $ETC is okay, but the halving event has already ended). Although I have holdings in $LDO, and the fundamentals and circulation are quite good, considering its previous performance, I won’t recommend it (even though it has shown some improvement recently).
Of course, the same goes for Pendle. However, I have talked about Pendle many times this year, so I won’t go into detail here.
For meme coins, apart from $PEPE, you can also look at $MOG, which is a meme coin that is quite popular overseas.
For ETH DeFi-related projects, I would consider $MKR. The future catalysts for $MKR are: splitting + SubDAO (another point worth noting is the collaboration between MakerDAO and Ethena).
As for Beta, you can wait for ETH to really start rising before chasing after it.
A few more words about Layer2.
1. BaseChain
I have staked $DEGEN on Base, whether it can make money remains to be seen with time. We can look forward to what will happen on BaseChain once Coinbase launches its smart wallet. For projects that can generate cash flow for the long term, we should always keep an eye on them.
Pay attention to opportunities on the Base chain, such as the gaming sector (for example, Aavegotchi $GHST). Aavegotchi’s Layer3, built on Base, is expected to launch its mainnet in Q2 of this year. It might happen this month.
2. Arbitrum
The Arbitrum community’s “200 million ARB game catalyst plan” proposal vote should pass. This is definitely a positive development for Arbitrum’s gaming ecosystem (like TreasureDAO).
$MAGIC also has a Layer3 expectation in the future. On April 22nd, TreasureDAO launched its Layer3 testnet, and is expected to launch its mainnet in Q3 of this year, with mainnet support for staking.
In addition, Radiant may be affected by LayerZero’s token issuance and v3 upgrade (this has been hyped a few times), with a possibility of a short-term rise (I am unlikely to participate).
AI
In the AI sector, I will only discuss two projects with confirmed catalysts:
$FET
The merger will take place on 6.11/6.13, and will be renamed to $ASI afterwards.
$AR
Information related to $AO will be released on 6.13, participants can mine $AO through $AR.
I personally prefer $AR a bit more.
There are many other coins in the AI sector, but I won’t go into detail about each one. The market sentiment in the AI sector will change depending on external factors. However, I won’t consider participating in $WLD.
Political Meme
For political memes on the blockchain, I have only participated in $MAGA. I bought in at 35 yesterday and will hold onto it for now. I will pay attention to the sentencing hearing on 7.11 (Trump’s birthday is also approaching).
CEX’s political meme is $PEOPLE, and I have set a $1 billion market value target for $PEOPLE.
For tokens with large price fluctuations, my outlook articles may be slightly delayed. Therefore, when we see Trump speaking out to compete for crypto voters, or unexpected events like the approval of an ETH ETF, we should realize that politics will become a mainstream narrative in the market. It’s best to get in early.
Solana Breaking New Highs?
Initially, I thought that $SOL might be affected by the strength of $ETH (bloodsucking).
Now I have changed my mind: Solana’s property as a memecoin gambling arena (referring to those memes made by celebrities, most people choose to issue memecoins on Solana), and the current market’s demand for memecoin gambling, lead me to believe that $SOL will not be excessively bloodsucked during this period. The people playing $SOL and $ETH have already been categorized, and those playing $SOL are not likely to easily switch to $ETH. Instead, the rise of $ETH will raise market expectations, drive market sentiment to highs, and Solana will benefit from this.
Other
1. Selfchain Mainnet
I was hurt by this project ($FRONT) last year, so I’m not interested.
2. Fantom Sonic
As of now, the launch of the Sonic mainnet by Fantom is a sell news event for $FTM traders. Keep an eye on AC’s subsequent actions, now that they have launched, they must do something on it (my expectations).
3. Uniswap’s “Fee Switch Mechanism” vote
It has been postponed. The reason may be that a certain VC is pressuring Uniswap. I will keep an eye on this matter (as a bystander), but I most likely won’t participate in trading $UNI.
4. June is also a month of airdrops, so be cautious of the risks.
Crypto Events in June, sourced from Layergg
Mark your Crypto events!
3 June: $CEEK – CEEK 3.0
3 June: $DUSK – €3.5M Bond Offering
4 June: $MINA – Berkeley upgrade
4 June: $MPL – SyrupFi Launch Webinar
5 June: $ATOM – V17 Upgrade
5 June: Coinbase Smart wallet Launch
6 June: $FRONT – Selfchain Mainnet
10 June: $RNDR – Apple WWDC 2024
10 June: $ZKJ – Polyhedra Staking
11 June: $FET – ASI Merge
12 June: U.S. – CPI
13 June: $STX – Stacks showcase
13 June: Bithumb – Delisting Decision $ALEX
13 June: $AR – AO token Launch
14 June: $CHZ – Euro 2024 starts
14 June: $CYBER – Mainnet Staking
18 June: Bithumb – Delisting Decision $GALA
18 June: $XLM – Mainnet upgrade vote
19 June: $FLOW – Testnet Network Upgrade
20 June: $BNB – Tycho hard fork
24 June: $MTL – Snapshot
25 June: $BTT – Halving of BTFS Storage Rewards
25 June: $SD – Mega burn
26 June: $THETA – Edge Node client Release
26 June: $FLUX – Fluxedge Alpha Public
27 June: 1st Trump/Biden debate
28 June: $VET – VeBetterDAO Mainnet
Token Generation Event
June 5: Taiko @taikoxyz
June 6: Ultiverse @UltiverseDAO
June 13: zkSync @zksync
June 20: Lista @lista_dao
June 26: Blast @Blast_L2
TBD: LayerZero @LayerZero_Labs
TBD: Avail @AvailProject
TBD: Swell @swellnetworkio
Token Unlock
$APT – $100M June 12
$STRK – $80M June 15
$ARB – $100M June 16
$UNI – $90M June 16
$OP – $80M June 30
Major Announcement
Ethereum spot ETF Launch
$FTM – $S Rebranding
$UNI – Fee switch Approval
$GAL – $G Rebranding
$APE – Apechain Mainnet
$GHST – Gotchichain Mainnet
$RDNT – Radiant V3
$ACE – Fusionist game Release
$AIOZ – AIOZ W3AI
