Author: @0xSleepinRain
Source: X
In this month’s content, after focusing on addition for a while, this time I want to try the effect of subtraction. I will only discuss my thoughts on future market trends and some specific events (catalysts) in terms of time.
This cycle seems to only benefit meme coin gamblers. $WIF is doing alright, the price fluctuations of $PEPE are quite significant, but very few actually benefit throughout. There are also some fundamental coins performing well, but they are few, such as $PENDLE. If we were to select a word of the year, PVP would definitely be one of them.
So, how do we go about this?
First, here are some of my personal thoughts:
1. Fundamentals and Community
Are fundamentals important? I believe they are crucial.
I think current fundamentals should refer to the ability to “capture market attention.” Fundamentals now are closely related to project data, chip supply, community stickiness, marketing/KOL opinions, narratives/catalysts, and whether they satisfy core market needs. A more comprehensive view is needed to assess a target.
For example, $PENDLE. I personally think Pendle excels in these aspects. In terms of fundamentals and narrative relevance, the initial rise was due to Pendle catering to the LSD narrative, and this year Pendle deeply engaged in the LRT narrative, driving the price to continue rising. This alignment with narratives keeps Pendle consistently at the forefront of market attention. That is, when people discuss or consider buying, they think of Pendle.
I have also been involved in Pendle’s community, and Pendle has done well in terms of community stickiness and product education. For example, the @PendleIntern account does a great job, allowing users truly interested in Pendle’s products to learn some strategies through the Intern account and tailor a plan that suits their financial situation.
I won’t dwell too much on the marketing aspect; there is plenty of information on Twitter about Pendle for those interested to search for. In summary, these marketing materials are mostly based on logic, data, and product short articles, threads, and prints, with few blind recommendations.
When considering most targets, we need to refer to these indicators.
2. Information Transmission
It is important to understand at which layer of information transmission you are.
3. Market Sentiment
Learn to observe market sentiment. A specific method would be to delve into the community, observe community members/community KOLs’ statements, and check Twitter for what smart investors are saying at market sentiment highs/lows.
You can establish your own information flow to observe market sentiment at key times.
Looking back at the market sentiment in early May, can you sense it?
Quick Tip: You can check TikTok as well.
Also, remember to observe your own emotional fluctuations.
4. Practice Prediction
Many articles discussing GCR mention this, so I won’t go into much detail here; you can look it up.
Next, let’s discuss some targets that I am more optimistic about:
ETH ETF
ETH ETF is great, no need for many words. Aside from leverage, the best Beta for ETH are targets with ETH in their names, such as $ETHFI $ENS. (I won’t recommend $ENA, $ETC is okay, but the halving event has already ended). Although I hold $LDO, and the fundamentals and circulation are quite good, considering its recent performance, I won’t recommend it (even though there has been some recent recovery).
Of course, the same goes for Pendle. However, I have discussed Pendle many times this year, so I won’t dwell on it here.
As for meme coins, besides $PEPE, you can also look at $MOG, which is a meme coin that is quite popular overseas.
Regarding ETH DeFi, I would consider $MKR. The future catalysts for $MKR are: splitting + SubDAO (another point worth noting is the collaboration between MakerDAO and Ethena).
As for Beta, you can wait for ETH to truly start rising before chasing.
A few more words on Layer2.
BaseChain
I have invested in $DEGEN on Base, whether it will be profitable or not remains to be seen. We can look forward to what will happen on BaseChain once Coinbase launches its smart wallet. For projects that can provide long-term cash flow to project parties, we should always keep an eye on them.
Pay attention to opportunities on the Base chain, such as the gaming sector on it (for example, Aavegotchi $GHST). Aavegotchi’s Layer3 built on Base will launch its mainnet in Q2 of this year, which might be this month.
Arbitrum
Arbitrum’s community “2 billion ARB game catalyst plan” proposal is likely to be approved. This event is definitely a positive for Arbitrum’s gaming ecosystem (such as TreasureDAO).
There is also an expectation for a Layer3 release for $MAGIC in the future. On April 22nd, TreasureDAO already launched the Layer3 testnet, and it is expected to launch the mainnet in Q3 of this year, with mainnet support for staking.
Additionally, Radiant may be affected by LayerZero’s coin issuance and v3 upgrade (which has been hyped a few times before) and has the possibility of a short-term rise (which I am unlikely to participate in).
AI
I will only discuss two targets in the AI sector with confirmed catalysts:
$FET
The merger will take place on 6.11/6.13, and it will be renamed to $ASI.
$AR
Information related to $AO will be released on 6.13, and participants can mine $AO through $AR.
I am more optimistic about $AR.
There are many other coins in the AI sector, so I won’t go into detail about each one. The market sentiment in the AI sector will change according to external factors. However, I won’t consider participating in $WLD.
Political Meme
I am only involved in the political meme on-chain $MAGA. I bought it at 35 yesterday and plan to hold it for a while. I will be watching the sentencing hearing on 7.11 (Trump’s birthday is also approaching).
On CEX, the political meme is $PEOPLE, and I have set a $1 billion market value target for $PEOPLE.
My outlook articles for tokens with significant price fluctuations may be somewhat delayed. Therefore, when we see Trump speaking out to compete for crypto voters or unexpected events such as the approval of ETH ETF, we should realize that politics will become a mainstream narrative in the market. It’s better to enter earlier.
Solana Breaking New Highs?
Initially, I thought $SOL might be affected by the strength of $ETH (siphoning). Now I have changed my mind: Solana’s property as a meme coin gambling arena (referring to those celebrity memes, most people would choose to issue meme coins on Solana) and the current market’s demand for meme coin gambling make me think that $SOL will not be drained too much during this period. The crowds of $ETH and $SOL have already been divided, and those playing $SOL will not easily move to $ETH. Instead, the rise on $ETH will raise market expectations, drive market sentiment to highs, and Solana will benefit from it.
Others
1. Selfchain Mainnet
I was hurt by this target ($FRONT) last year, so I’m not looking at it.
2. Fantom Sonic
Currently, the launch of Sonic mainnet for Fantom is a sell news event for $FTM speculators. Keep an eye on AC’s actions following this; once it launches, there should be some activity on it (my expectation).
3. Uniswap “Fee Switch Mechanism” Vote
It has been postponed. The reason may be pressure from a VC on Uniswap. I will keep an eye on this (as a bystander), but I probably won’t participate in trading $UNI.
4. June is also a big month for airdrops, so be cautious of risks.
Crypto Events in June, sourced from Layergg
Mark your Crypto events!
(June events listed)
Token Generation Event
(June token generation events listed)
Token Unlock
(June token unlock events listed)
Major Announcement
(Major announcements for June listed)
