Author: SleepingRain in the Rain Source: X, @0xSleepinRain
In this month’s content, after adding enough, this time I want to try the effect of subtraction. Just discussing my thoughts on the future market trends and some specific events (catalysts).
It seems that only memecoin gamblers can make money in this cycle. $WIF is okay, the price fluctuations of $PEPE are quite large, but very few people actually make it all the way. Fundamental coins also perform well, but fewer, just a few, such as $PENDLE. If we were to choose the annual buzzword, PVP would definitely be one of them.
So, what to do?
I. Here are some of my personal thoughts:
1. Fundamentals and Community
Are fundamentals important? I think they are very important.
I believe that current fundamentals should refer to the ability to “capture market attention.” The current fundamentals are closely related to project data, chips, community stickiness, marketing/KOL rhetoric, narratives/catalysts, and whether they can meet the core needs of the market. To have a more comprehensive view of a target.
For example, $PENDLE. I personally think that Pendle is great in these aspects. In terms of the correlation between fundamentals and narratives, the initial rise was because Pendle catered to the LSD narrative, and this year Pendle also deeply participated in the LRT narrative, driving the price to continue to rise. This coordination with the narrative keeps Pendle at the forefront of market attention. That is, when people discuss or intend to buy, they will think of Pendle.
I have also been involved in the Pendle community, and Pendle has done well in community stickiness and product education. For example, the @PendleIntern account has done a great job, allowing users who are truly interested in Pendle products to learn some strategies through this account, in order to develop a plan that is more suitable for their financial situation.
I won’t talk much about the marketing aspect. There are many introductions to Pendle on Twitter, so you can search and see. In short, these marketing content can be summarized in one sentence: there are few blind recommendations, most are based on logic, data, and product short articles, threads, and prints.
When dealing with most targets, we need to refer to these indicators.
2. Information Transmission
It is important to understand which layer of information transmission you are in.
3. Market Sentiment
Learn to observe market sentiment. Specifically, you can delve into the community, observe the statements of community members/community KOLs, and see what smart money is saying at market sentiment highs/lows on Twitter.
You can establish your own information flow and observe market sentiment at key time points.
Looking back at the market sentiment in early May, did it have a familiar taste?
Quick tip: You can go on Douyin to check it out.
Also, remember to observe your own emotional fluctuations.
4. Practice Prediction
Many articles about GCR mention this, so I won’t elaborate here, you can search for more.
Next, let’s talk about some targets that I am more optimistic about:
II. ETH ETF
ETH ETF is great, no need to say more. Apart from leverage, the best Beta for ETH is those targets with ETH in their names, such as $ETHFI $ENS. ($ENA I won’t recommend, $ETC is okay, but the halving event has already passed). Although I hold $LDO and its fundamentals and circulation situation are pretty good, considering its performance in the recent past, I won’t recommend it (even though it has shown some signs of recovery recently).
Of course, the same goes for Pendle. However, I have talked about Pendle many times this year, so I won’t go into detail here.
In terms of meme coins, apart from $PEPE, you can also look at $MOG, which is a meme that is quite popular overseas.
For ETH DeFi-related targets, I would consider $MKR. The future catalysts for $MKR are: splitting + SubDAO (another point worth paying attention to is the collaboration between MakerDAO and Ethena).
As for Beta, you can wait for ETH to truly start rising before chasing.
Let’s talk a bit more about Layer2.
1. BaseChain
I have invested in $DEGEN on Base, whether it can make money or not, it will take time to confirm. You can look forward to what will happen on BaseChain once Coinbase launches its smart wallet. For projects that can bring cash flow to the project party in the long term, we should always pay attention.
Pay more attention to opportunities on the Base chain, such as the gaming sector on it (such as Aavegotchi $GHST). Aavegotchi’s Layer3 built on Base will launch its mainnet in Q2 of this year. It might be happening this month.
2. Arbitrum
Arbitrum’s community “2 billion ARB game catalyst plan” proposal should be approved. This is definitely a positive development for Arbitrum’s gaming ecosystem (such as TreasureDAO).
There is also an expectation for a Layer3 from $MAGIC in the future. On April 22nd, TreasureDAO already launched its Layer3 testnet and is expected to launch its mainnet in Q3 of this year, with support for staking.
In addition, Radiant may be affected by the issuance of LayerZero tokens and the v3 upgrade (which has been hyped several times), with a possibility of short-term gains (I am highly unlikely to participate).
III. AI
I will only discuss two targets in the AI sector with confirmed catalysts:
$FET
The merger will take place on 6.11/6.13 and will be renamed $ASI afterwards.
$AR
Information related to $AO will be released on 6.13, and participants can mine $AO through $AR.
I am more optimistic about $AR.
There are many other coins in the AI sector, but I won’t go into detail. The market sentiment in the AI sector will change according to external factors. However, I won’t consider participating in $WLD.
IV. Political Meme
I have only participated in $MAGA in the political meme on-chain. I bought it at 35 yesterday and am prepared to hold it for a bit longer. I will pay attention to the sentencing hearing on 7.11 (Trump’s birthday is also coming up).
The political meme on CEX is $PEOPLE, and I have set a market cap target of $1 billion for $PEOPLE.
For tokens with larger price fluctuations, my outlook articles may be somewhat lagging. Therefore, when you see events such as Trump vying for Crypto voters or unexpected approval of ETH ETFs, we should realize that politics will become the mainstream narrative in the market. It’s better to get in earlier.
V. Can Solana break new highs?
Initially, I thought that $SOL might be influenced by the strength of $ETH (vampire).
Now I have changed my mind: Solana’s property as a memecoin gambling site (referring to those memes involving celebrities, most people would choose to issue memecoins on Solana) and the current market demand for memecoin gambling suggest that $SOL will not be drained too much during this period – the crowds on $ETH and $SOL are already divided, and people playing on $SOL are unlikely to easily switch to $ETH. Instead, the rise of $ETH will raise market expectations, drive market sentiment towards highs, and Solana will benefit from this.
VI. Other
1. Selfchain Mainnet
I was hurt by this target ($FRONT) last year, so I’m not looking at it.
2. Fantom Sonic
Currently, the launch of Sonic Mainnet by Fantom is a Sell News event for $FTM traders. Keep an eye on the subsequent actions of AC, if the chain is out, something must be done on it (my expectation).
3. Uniswap “Launch Fee Mechanism” Vote
It has been postponed. The reason may be that a certain VC is pressuring Uniswap. I will keep an eye on this matter (as a spectator), but I most likely won’t participate in speculation on $UNI.
4. June is also a month with many airdrops, so be cautious of the risks.
VII. Cryptocurrency events in June, from Layergg
Mark your Crypto events!
June 3: $CEEK – CEEK 3.0
June 3: $DUSK – €3.5M Bond Offering
June 4: $MINA – Berkeley upgrade
June 4: $MPL – SyrupFi Launch Webinar
June 5: $ATOM – V17 Upgrade
June 5: Coinbase Smart wallet Launch
June 6: $FRONT – Selfchain Mainnet
June 10: $RNDR – Apple WWDC 2024
June 10: $ZKJ – Polyhedra Staking
June 11: $FET – ASI Merge
June 12: U.S. – CPI
June 13: $STX – Stacks showcase
June 13: Bithumb – Delisting Decision $ALEX
June 13: $AR – AO token Launch
June 14: $CHZ – Euro 2024 starts
June 14: $CYBER – Mainnet Staking
June 18: Bithumb – Delisting Decision $GALA
June 18: $XLM – Mainnet upgrade vote
June 19: $FLOW – Testnet Network Upgrade
June 20: $BNB – Tycho hard fork
June 24: $MTL – Snapshot
June 25: $BTT – Halving of BTFS Storage Rewards
June 25: $SD – Mega burn
June 26: $THETA – Edge Node client Release
June 26: $FLUX – Fluxedge Alpha Public
June 27: 1st Trump/Biden debate
June 28: $VET – VeBetterDAO Mainnet
Token Generation Event
June 5: Taiko @taikoxyz
June 6: Ultiverse @UltiverseDAO
June 13: zkSync @zksync
June 20: Lista @lista_dao
June 26: Blast @Blast_L2
TBD: LayerZero @LayerZero_Labs
TBD: Avail @AvailProject
TBD: Swell @swellnetworkio
Token Unlock
$APT – $100M June 12
$STRK – $80M June 15
$ARB – $100M June 16
$UNI – $90M June 16
$OP – $80M June 30
Major Announcement
Ethereum spot ETF Launch
$FTM – $S Rebranding
$UNI – Fee switch Approval
$GAL – $G Rebranding
$APE – Apechain Mainnet
$GHST – Gotchichain Mainnet
$RDNT – Radiant V3
$ACE – Fusionist game Release
$AIOZ – AIOZ W3AI
