Ethereum ETF Soars 18% on the Eve of Approval
https://www.coinglass.com/zh/LiquidationData
On May 20, 2024, according to analysts from Bloomberg, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has requested exchanges to expedite the submission of the 19b-4 documents for the Ethereum spot ETF. The analysts at Bloomberg have increased the probability of approval for the Ethereum spot ETF to 75%, resulting in an 18% surge in the price of ETH. On that day, the short positions liquidated amounted to a staggering $75 million. However, after the official approval of the Ethereum spot ETF on May 23, the price of Ethereum experienced a rapid decline from its peak of $3,950 to a low of $3,524. The long positions liquidated reached $88.16 million. Subsequently, the price of Ethereum rebounded and rose back to $3,800.
There are approximately 20 days left until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on June 13, 2024.
https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168
Market Technical and Sentiment Analysis
Sentiment Analysis Composition
Technical Indicators
Price Trends
In the past week, BTC’s price increased by 4.19% and ETH’s price increased by 28.49%.
The chart above shows the price movement of BTC in the past week.
The chart above shows the price movement of ETH in the past week.
The table displays the percentage change in prices over the past week.
Price-Volume Distribution (Support and Resistance)
In the past week, BTC’s price broke through and then retraced to the dense trading zone, while ETH’s price broke through the dense trading zone.
The chart above shows the distribution of dense trading zones for BTC in the past week.
The chart above shows the distribution of dense trading zones for ETH in the past week.
The table displays the dense trading zones for BTC and ETH in the past week.
Trading Volume and Open Interest
In the past week, BTC’s trading volume was highest when it surged on May 20, while ETH’s trading volume was highest when it dropped on May 22. BTC’s open interest remained relatively stable, while ETH’s open interest increased significantly.
The top section of the chart shows the price movement of BTC, the middle section shows the trading volume, and the bottom section shows the open interest. The light blue line represents the 1-day moving average, and the orange line represents the 7-day moving average. The color of the candlesticks represents the current state, with green indicating price increase supported by trading volume, red indicating liquidation, yellow indicating slow accumulation of positions, and black indicating congestion.
The top section of the chart shows the price movement of ETH, the middle section shows the trading volume, and the bottom section shows the open interest. The light blue line represents the 1-day moving average, and the orange line represents the 7-day moving average. The color of the candlesticks represents the current state, with green indicating price increase supported by trading volume, red indicating liquidation, yellow indicating slow accumulation of positions, and black indicating congestion.
Historical Volatility and Implied Volatility
In the past week, BTC and ETH reached their highest historical volatility when they surged on May 20. BTC’s implied volatility decreased, while ETH’s implied volatility increased.
The yellow line represents historical volatility, the blue line represents implied volatility, and the red dots represent the 7-day average.
Event-Driven
In terms of events, this week the SEC approved the Ethereum ETF, resulting in a price increase of about 18% before approval and a sharp drop followed by a rebound after approval.
Sentiment Indicators
Momentum Sentiment
In the past week, among Bitcoin, gold, the Nasdaq, Hang Seng Index, and Shanghai-Shenzhen 300, Bitcoin was the strongest performer, while Hang Seng Index performed the worst.
The chart above shows the performance of different assets in the past week.
Lending Rates and Borrowing Sentiment
In the past week, the average annualized lending yield for USD was 12.1%, and short-term rates increased slightly.
The yellow line represents the highest price of USD rates, the blue line represents 75% of the highest price, and the red line represents the 7-day average of 75% of the highest price.
The table displays the average returns for different holding periods of USD rates.
Funding Rates and Contract Leverage Sentiment
In the past week, the average annualized funding rate for BTC was 6.8%, and the contract leverage sentiment rebounded from a low level.
The blue line represents the funding rate for BTC on Binance, and the red line represents the 7-day average.
The table displays the average returns for different holding periods of BTC funding rates.
Market Correlation and Consistency Sentiment
In the past week, the correlation among the selected 129 coins has increased to around 0.85, and the consistency among different varieties has increased significantly.
The blue line represents the price of Bitcoin, and the green line represents [‘1000 floki’, ‘1000 lunc’, ‘1000 pepe’, ‘1000 shib’, ‘100 0x ec’, ‘1inch’, ‘aave’, ‘ada’, ‘agix’, ‘algo’, ‘ankr’, ‘ant’, ‘ape’, ‘apt’, ‘arb’, ‘ar’, ‘astr’, ‘atom’, ‘audio’, ‘avax’, ‘axs’, ‘bal’, ‘band’, ‘bat’, ‘bch’, ‘bigtime’, ‘blur’, ‘bnb’, ‘btc’, ‘celo’, ‘cfx’, ‘chz’, ‘ckb’, ‘comp’, ‘crv’, ‘cvx’, ‘cyber’, ‘dash’, ‘doge’, ‘dot’, ‘dydx’, ‘egld’, ‘enj’, ‘ens’, ‘eos’,’etc’, ‘eth’, ‘fet’, ‘fil’, ‘flow’, ‘ftm’, ‘fxs’, ‘gala’, ‘gmt’, ‘gmx’, ‘grt’, ‘hbar’, ‘hot’, ‘icp’, ‘icx’, ‘imx’, ‘inj’, ‘iost’, ‘iotx’, ‘jasmy’, ‘kava’, ‘klay’, ‘ksm’, ‘ldo’, ‘link’, ‘loom’, ‘lpt’, ‘lqty’, ‘lrc’, ‘ltc’, ‘luna 2’, ‘magic’, ‘mana’, ‘matic’, ‘meme’, ‘mina’, ‘mkr’, ‘near’, ‘neo’, ‘ocean’, ‘one’, ‘ont’, ‘op’, ‘pendle’, ‘qnt’, ‘qtum’, ‘rndr’, ‘rose’, ‘rune’, ‘rvn’, ‘sand’, ‘sei’, ‘sfp’, ‘skl’, ‘snx’, ‘sol’, ‘ssv’, ‘stg’, ‘storj’, ‘stx’, ‘sui’, ‘sushi’, ‘sxp’, ‘theta’, ‘tia’, ‘trx’, ‘t’, ‘uma’, ‘uni’, ‘vet’, ‘waves’, ‘wld’, ‘woo’, ‘xem’, ‘xlm’, ‘xmr’, ‘xrp’, ‘xtz’, ‘yfi’, ‘zec’, ‘zen’, ‘zil’, ‘zrx’] overall correlation.
Market Breadth and Overall Sentiment
In the past week, among the selected 129 coins, 77% were above the 30-day moving average, compared to only 31% for BTC. 20% had a distance of more than 20% from the lowest price in the past 30 days, while 57% had a distance of less than 10% from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week shows that the overall market is gradually entering an upward trend.
The chart above shows the proportions of various breadth indicators for [‘bnb’, ‘btc’, ‘sol’, ‘eth’, ‘1000 floki’, ‘1000 lunc’, ‘1000 pepe’, ‘1000 sats’, ‘1000 shib’, ‘100 0x ec’, ‘1inch’, ‘aave’, ‘ada’, ‘agix’, ‘ai’, ‘algo’, ‘alt’, ‘ankr’, ‘ape’, ‘apt’, ‘arb’, ‘ar’, ‘astr’, ‘atom’, ‘audio’, ‘avax’, ‘axs’, ‘bal’, ‘band’, ‘bat’, ‘bch’, ‘bigtime’, ‘blur’, ‘cake’, ‘celo’, ‘cfx’, ‘chz’, ‘ckb’, ‘comp’, ‘crv’, ‘cvx’, ‘cyber’, ‘dash’, ‘doge’, ‘dot’, ‘dydx’, ‘egld’, ‘enj’, ‘ens’, ‘eos’,’etc’, ‘fet’, ‘fil’, ‘flow’, ‘ftm’, ‘fxs’, ‘gala’, ‘gmt’, ‘gmx’, ‘grt’, ‘hbar’, ‘hot’, ‘icp’, ‘icx’, ‘idu’, ‘imx’, ‘inj’, ‘iost’, ‘iotx’, ‘jasmy’, ‘jto’, ‘jup’, ‘kava’, ‘klay’, ‘ksm’, ‘ldo’, ‘link’, ‘loom’, ‘lpt’, ‘lqty’, ‘lrc’, ‘ltc’, ‘luna 2’, ‘magic’, ‘mana’, ‘manta’, ‘mask’, ‘matic’, ‘meme’, ‘mina’, ‘mkr’, ‘near’, ‘neo’, ‘nfp’, ‘ocean’, ‘one’, ‘ont’, ‘op’, ‘ordi’, ‘pendle’, ‘pyth’, ‘qnt’, ‘qtum’, ‘rndr’, ‘robin’, ‘rose’, ‘rune’, ‘rvn’, ‘sand’, ‘sei’, ‘sfp’, ‘skl’, ‘snx’, ‘ssv’, ‘stg’, ‘storj’, ‘stx’, ‘sui’, ‘sushi’, ‘sxp’, ‘theta’, ‘tia’, ‘trx’, ‘t’, ‘uma’, ‘uni’, ‘vet’, ‘waves’, ‘wif’, ‘wld’, ‘woo’,’xai’, ‘xem’, ‘xlm’, ‘xmr’, ‘xrp’, ‘xtz’, ‘yfi’, ‘zec’, ‘zen’, ‘zil’, ‘zrx’] over the past 30 days.
Summary
In the past week, both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) experienced price increases due to the Bloomberg analyst’s early prediction of the approval of the Ethereum ETF on May 20. However, after the official approval of the ETF, Ethereum experienced a rapid decline from its peak followed by a rebound. During this process, both Bitcoin and Ethereum reached their highest historical volatility. Specifically, BTC had its highest trading volume when it surged on May 20, while Ethereum had its highest trading volume when it rebounded from the high on May 23. In terms of open interest, BTC remained relatively stable, while Ethereum’s open interest increased significantly. Additionally, BTC’s implied volatility decreased, while Ethereum’s implied volatility increased. Funding rates rebounded from low levels, and the market breadth indicator shows that the market is gradually entering an upward trend. In terms of events, this week the SEC approved the Ethereum ETF, resulting in an approximately 18% price increase before approval. However, after the approval, the price of Ethereum experienced a sharp drop followed by a rebound.
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