Breaking News! Trump Promises to Pardon Silk Road Founder if Re-Elected
Former US President Donald Trump has vowed to release Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road, if he is elected again. Trump made the announcement at the Libertarian National Convention in Washington on May 25th, stating, “If you vote for me, on the first day, I will commute Ross Ulbricht’s sentence.” He added, “He has already served 11 years, and we will bring him back home.” Silk Road was the first modern darknet marketplace, with its payment system based on Bitcoin.
Trump also declared his commitment to ensuring the future of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin manufacturing in the United States instead of outsourcing it overseas. He promised to protect those who choose to hold cryptocurrency assets outside of centralized exchanges, stating, “I will support the right to self-custody,” and assured the 50 million cryptocurrency holders in America that he would keep Elizabeth Warren and her allies away from their Bitcoin. This is a stark contrast to his previous statements as president, where he referred to Bitcoin as a scam.
Who is Ross Ulbricht?
Ross Ulbricht, also known as the Dread Pirate Roberts, was the owner of the online marketplace Silk Road. Silk Road facilitated the trade of drugs, psychoactive substances, and other illegal products. The website operated through hidden services and utilized Bitcoin as its primary currency due to its relative anonymity, fast transactions, and Ulbricht’s fondness for digital currencies. The website charged fees for every transaction, and Ulbricht accumulated millions of dollars in net worth as a result. In 2013, Ulbricht was arrested for charges related to drug trafficking, hacking, and money laundering. In 2015, at the age of 31, he was sentenced to life imprisonment.
Market Technical and Sentiment Analysis
Emotional Analysis:
Technical Indicators:
Price Trend:
In the past week, BTC prices increased by 0.56%, while ETH prices decreased by 0.94%.
The chart above depicts the price movement of BTC over the past week.
The chart above depicts the price movement of ETH over the past week.
The table displays the price change rate over the past week.
Volume and Open Interest:
In the past week, BTC witnessed an increase in trading volume after a rise on May 27th, while ETH’s trading volume remained relatively low. Both BTC and ETH experienced a slight increase in open interest.
The chart above shows the price trend of BTC, with the middle section representing the trading volume and the bottom section representing the open interest. The light blue line represents the 1-day average, and the orange line represents the 7-day average. The color of the candlestick represents the current status, with green indicating a price increase supported by trading volume, red indicating closing positions, yellow indicating slow accumulation of positions, and black indicating congestion.
The chart above shows the price trend of ETH, with the middle section representing the trading volume and the bottom section representing the open interest. The light blue line represents the 1-day average, and the orange line represents the 7-day average. The color of the candlestick represents the current status, with green indicating a price increase supported by trading volume, red indicating closing positions, yellow indicating slow accumulation of positions, and black indicating congestion.
Historical and Implied Volatility:
In the past week, both BTC and ETH maintained relatively low levels of historical volatility, while their implied volatilities experienced a slight increase.
The yellow line represents historical volatility, the blue line represents implied volatility, and the red dot represents the 7-day average.
Event-Driven:
In terms of events, there will be significant data released this Friday.
Sentiment Indicators:
Momentum Sentiment:
In the past week, among BTC, gold, Nasdaq, Hang Seng Index, and Shanghai-Shenzhen 300, gold showed the strongest momentum, while Hang Seng Index performed the worst.
The chart above shows the performance of different assets over the past week.
Lending Rate and Borrowing Sentiment:
In the past week, the average annualized lending yield for USD was 11.6%, with short-term rates rising to around 12.7%.
The yellow line represents the highest price of USD rates, the blue line represents 75% of the highest price, and the red line represents the 7-day average of 75% of the highest price.
The table displays the average returns for USD rates over different holding periods.
Funding Rate and Contract Leverage Sentiment:
In the past week, the average annualized funding yield for BTC was 11.1%, and the contract leverage sentiment experienced a slight recovery.
The blue line represents the funding rate for BTC on Binance, and the red line represents the 7-day average.
The table displays the average returns for BTC funding rates over different holding periods.
Market Correlation and Consistency Sentiment:
In the past week, the correlation among the selected 129 coins decreased to around 0.55, and the consistency between different assets dropped significantly.
The blue line represents the price of Bitcoin, and the green line represents the overall correlation among the selected coins.
Market Breadth and Overall Sentiment:
In the past week, among the selected 129 coins, approximately 80% had prices above the 30-day moving average, while around 45% had BTC prices above the 30-day moving average. About 32% of the coins had a distance from the lowest price in the past 30 days greater than 20%, and approximately 76% had a distance from the highest price in the past 30 days less than 10%. The market breadth indicator in the past week shows that the majority of coins are in a recovery and upward trend.
The chart above shows the percentages of different width indicators for the selected 30-day coins.
Summary:
In the past week, both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) prices have been oscillating near their historical highs. Meanwhile, their historical volatilities have remained relatively low. BTC’s trading volume increased after a rise on May 27th, while ETH’s trading volume remained relatively low. Both BTC and ETH experienced a slight increase in open interest, and their implied volatilities also saw a slight increase. Additionally, BTC’s funding rate experienced a small recovery, and the market breadth indicator shows that the overall market is in a phase where most coins are recovering and trending upwards.
