Article Rewritten:
Cryptocurrency J-Curve, perhaps one of the most crucial methods for market traders to learn.
If you are not an experienced sniper who prefers to buy cryptocurrencies only when it’s safe, or just an emotional trader trying to make sense of things, then this article is for you.
The First Phase
The main players are snipers with technical advantages, insiders/presale merchants with unfair advantages, and speculators who prioritize quantity over fundamentals.
In most cases, regular traders fail here, as the speed of decline and rise is just as rapid when speculators move on to new shiny things.
The Second Phase
Enthusiasm wanes, speculators exit, trading volume shrinks, and holders’ average uPNL is lower than profits. Indians bombard TG with marketing advice, and scammy KOLs slowly fade out of TL.
This is the most crucial phase as it brings the biggest opportunities.
The second phase is the phase of turning the tables, and to achieve this, one must evaluate if the project is dead or if the sacred J-Curve is loading.
Important metrics to focus on:
– Team wallets:
Are there bundled sales?
Are top wallets selling?
Have taxes (if any) been moved to Cex or retained/used on-chain?
– Social image:
Is the handling on Weibo/TG cautious and consistent?
Are social metrics growing or declining?
– Roadmap execution:
Are the promises made by the team in the first phase being fulfilled?
– New buyers:
Have renowned wallets made purchases?
Have new wallets made purchases?
Have dormant wallets made purchases?
There are more metrics to consider, but I believe these are the most important for assessing potential risks/rewards in the second phase.
In the past few months, there have been countless examples of the J-Curve, here are some examples I lazily collected:
The Third Phase
The product shows initial success, generating real income from practical use for technology and creating a massive following for memes, with KOLs promoting it heavily.
This is where you sell because the risk is high, ensuring profits, with a focus on the second phase of the J-Curve.
In conclusion, studying the J-Curve can provide opportunities for those without any advantages (most of my purchases in the second phase were done through Uniswap with lower gas fees).
Hunting in the second phase can help us combat FOMO and avoid becoming the ones catching the falling knives when snipers and big players sell off.
Hope you learned something new, goodbye.
