Original | Odaily Planet Daily
Author | Nan Zhi
After briefly touching a high of $72,000 last Friday (June 7th), the market has once again begun a round of major sell-off. Tonight, the CPI and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be announced, signaling a new round of large fluctuations.
How do various institutions and research institutes view the future market? Odaily Planet Daily summarizes their main points since June 7th in this article.
Bullish: Bull market continues
10x: If BTC breaks through $72,000, it will continue to reach new highs, bullish on BTC/ETH exchange rate
10x Research stated in its latest market analysis report that tonight’s dual macro events CPI and FOMC seem difficult to predict after last week’s better-than-expected U.S. job data, leading most Wall Street banks to delay their first rate cut expectations until September or later. Although the rate-sensitive Nasdaq continues to hit new highs, Bitcoin has dropped from $71,000 to $67,000.
If the price of Bitcoin rises above $72,000 ($71,946), it may break new highs. However, over-allocation to Ethereum (leverage) futures may have a negative impact on Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is preferred over Ethereum (BTC fell 5% last week, ETH fell 9%).
Comments from SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on the approval of the Ethereum ETF S-1 seem more likely to start unwinding leveraged long positions rather than repricing Wall Street’s rate expectations. Enthusiasm around the Ethereum ETF has significantly decreased, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate continuing to decline.
Kimchi premium rebounding, representing Korean demand growth
Recently, the Korean Bitcoin “kimchi premium” dropped to less than 1% after reaching close to 10% in mid-April, and now the premium is rebounding.
CryptoQuant data shows that on June 4th, after hitting a low of 0.62% (when global prices were almost the same), the premium rose to 3.42% by June 6th. Analysis indicates that this usually signals growth in Korean demand, which may push up the price of Bitcoin in the short term.
In addition, CoinMarketCap’s archive data on June 9th shows that the global trading price of Bitcoin is $69,288, while on Upbit, the price of Bitcoin is $71,130, a premium of 2.658%. Bithumb, Coinone, and Korbit have also seen similar premiums. The premium for Ethereum is also 2.69%, with a global price of $3,679 and a price of $3,778 on Upbit and other platforms. (Bitcoin.com)
BTC shifting from CEX to DEX indicates long-term bullishness
Glassnode data shows that as investors wait for the price of the bull market to rise, the user balances of Bitcoin and Ethereum on centralized exchanges have dropped significantly, with the value of Bitcoin falling to less than 2.3 million coins (approximately $158 billion) and Ethereum falling to less than 16 million coins (approximately less than $58 billion). User balances for these two main cryptocurrencies have dropped to their lowest levels in four years, with analysts interpreting this as a bullish signal for the future. The decline in exchange balances indicates that people are becoming more confident in the long-term potential of these digital assets, with investors choosing to withdraw their cryptocurrencies from exchanges and put them into deep freeze. (Bitcoinist)
Bitfinex: Euro rate cut bullish for BTC
On June 7th, Bitfinex analysts stated that due to a decrease in investor interest in risky assets, BTC may fall below the $70,000 mark this week (already realized). However, the previous Euro rate cut may increase the liquidity of Bitcoin, as the rate cut may weaken the Euro, potentially increasing demand for alternative assets such as Bitcoin. Increased liquidity from loose monetary policies may also support risk assets including cryptocurrencies. (Cointelegraph)
Bitfinex: BTC will rise to over $120,000 in this cycle
Analysts at the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex predict that the current Bitcoin bull market cycle may peak in the fourth quarter of 2024. Analysts state that historical data indicates that Bitcoin usually reaches an all-time high (ATH) several months after a halving event, so they predict that the market top may occur around the fourth quarter of 2024.
Bitfinex analysts forecast that in the current cycle, based on on-chain indicators and historical patterns, Bitcoin is expected to reach at least $120,000 in this cycle. (The Block)
QCP Capital: BTC will continue to rise
Analysts at the cryptocurrency trading company QCP Capital stated that today’s release of U.S. initial jobless claims and next week’s CPI could be catalysts for Bitcoin to hit new all-time highs. In addition, with the possibility of a rate cut, Bitcoin may further rise. Analysts also expect ETH to continue to lag behind in the short term, pointing out that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said in a CNBC interview yesterday that the approval of the spot Ethereum ETF S-1 “will take some time”. (The Block)
Neutral: Not ruling out the possibility of consolidation
ETF inflows are not necessarily bullish bets
Despite record inflows into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, the price of Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within a narrow range. ETF inflows seem to be part of non-directional cash and arbitrage strategies, not necessarily representing a complete bullish bet. Anonymous market observer CMS Holdings stated: “Buying ETFs and selling CME futures to reduce the basis of some major markets, allowing entities to realize net profits, is also why ETF inflows are high but spot prices have not changed significantly.” This strategy is commonly known as cash arbitrage, aimed at profiting from the premium of futures markets relative to spot markets. (Coindesk)
Bitcoin’s third-quarter backtesting data performance is mediocre
According to on-chain analyst Ali’s post on the X platform, historically, Bitcoin typically performs poorly in the third quarter, with an average return of only 6.49% and a median return of -2.57%.
BTC has strong support at $67,350
According to on-chain analyst Ali’s post on the X platform, Bitcoin is anchored in a strong support area between $67,350 and $69,380, with 1.97 million addresses holding 964,000 coins, maintaining this level is crucial for Bitcoin to sustain its upward momentum.
Bearish: Market still not optimistic
Cryptoquant: ETH will continue to fall in the short term
Cryptoquant analyst ShayanBTC stated that the price of Ethereum may continue to fall in the short term unless market conditions improve. The current Ethereum price is struggling to break $4,000, and the buy/sell ratio in the futures market (7-day moving average) shows that sellers have the upper hand. This ratio has recently failed to rise above 1 and has sharply declined, indicating that most futures traders are either selling Ethereum for speculative purposes or to realize profits. This trend is a bearish signal, and if it continues, the current downward retracement could persist.
QCP Capital: Buy on dips
QCP Capital stated in its market analysis on June 8th that the unexpectedly better-than-expected non-farm data and the rise in the unemployment rate are enough to trigger risk aversion before the release of U.S. inflation data and FOMC next Wednesday.
In addition, Roaring Kitty’s live stream attracted nearly a million viewers, during which GME stock price plummeted. Altcoins and meme coins simultaneously declined, with a market capitalization evaporating over $40 billion, which may not be a coincidence.
There is bullish capital flow in this decline, including sellers of aggressive put options and buyers of call spreads, especially in BTC.
QCP Capital believes that this decline is a good opportunity to buy on dips, as the market will increasingly digest the impact of the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut from now on. As other countries around the world continue to cut interest rates, the U.S. will find it hard to ignore this.
