Headline: Bitcoin Could Reach $48,000 in a Few Days, Says 10x Research Founder
Markus Thielen, Director of Research at Matrixport and Founder of 10x Research, predicts that Bitcoin will rise to $48,000 in the short term, driven by strong upward momentum during the Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations.
According to Thielen’s report, the next few days are statistically significant as Bitcoin tends to rise by 11% around the time of the Lunar New Year, starting from February 10th (Saturday). Over the past 9 years, whenever traders bought Bitcoin three days before the Lunar New Year and sold it 10 days after the start of the Lunar New Year, Bitcoin has experienced a surge.
Thielen describes this breakthrough as “very important” as it signifies the end of the adjustment period for Bitcoin, which dropped to $38,500 at the end of January, and opens the door for a short-term target of $48,000.
Polygon Releases zkEVM Prover Type 1
Polygon has released the Type 1 Prover for its next-generation zkEVM (zero-knowledge Ethereum Virtual Machine) proof mechanism. This new proof technology is capable of generating proofs for any EVM chain, including sidechains, Optimistic Rollups, and even Ethereum itself.
Polygon states that the Type 1 upgrade will be able to generate ZK proofs for Ethereum mainnet blocks at an average cost of $0.002 to $0.003 per transaction, which is 36 times faster than any other Type 1 Prover. With further improvements in Plonky3 and zkEVM, the cost is expected to decrease by 30 to 50 times next year.
Market Update
According to coinmarketcap data at the time of writing:
BTC is currently trading at $45,394.9, with a daily change of -0.34%.
ETH is currently trading at $2,420.95, with a daily change of -1.33%.
BNB is currently trading at $318.8, with a daily change of -0.34%.
XRP is currently trading at $0.5144, with a daily change of -0.54%.
DOGE is currently trading at $0.0799, with a daily change of -0.88%.
ADA is currently trading at $0.5348, with a daily change of +0.58%.
SOL is currently trading at $103.28, with a daily change of -0.46%.
Policy
The U.S. House of Representatives will hold a hearing next week to discuss the role of cryptocurrencies in crime and illicit finance, according to a public agenda.
Five Republican senators in the U.S. have written a letter to the SEC Chairman, criticizing the “unethical” handling of the DEBT Box case and expressing doubts about the agency’s other enforcement actions. The legislators state in the letter that it is unreasonable for a federal agency, especially one that frequently engages in significant legal proceedings and fulfills its regulatory mission through enforcement actions rather than rulemaking, to operate in such an unethical and unprofessional manner.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated during a Senate Banking Committee hearing today that the Treasury Department can use more power to combat the use of cryptocurrencies by terrorist organizations. Yellen said, “We do have a lot of authority to take action, but we have found some gaps in our authority and have made a series of recommendations on how to strengthen the Treasury Department’s power.”
Blockchain Applications
Web3 tournament platform Community Gaming has announced a strategic partnership with Tools for Humanity, the team behind Worldcoin’s World ID. Community Gaming will integrate World ID’s human verification technology into its specific tournament platform. This feature will allow tournament organizers to require registrants to verify their accounts through World ID before registering for a tournament, enhancing account authenticity and ensuring that each participant in World ID-verified tournaments is a unique individual. This partnership aims to significantly improve the integrity and security of the hundreds of tournaments held monthly on Community Gaming.
Horizen announced that its sidechain TokenMint, which was used for concept validation, will be deprecated on Wednesday, March 6th, 2024. As part of the deprecation, all TokenMint users will need to remove their ZEN from the sidechain before the deprecation date to avoid losing their funds.
The virtual world ZTX, which empowers creators and communities, has announced that the ZTX beta has officially launched. The beta version introduces the option to log in to ZTX using an email address after integrating smart accounts. Gas transactions have also been changed, with ZTX no longer subsidizing gas transactions. However, ZTX Beta can still be tested for free.
Stride, a liquidity staking platform, is collaborating with Hyperlane to extend stTIA to the modular ecosystem. Hyperlane is a permissionless interoperability layer connecting modular ecosystems, allowing users to connect any blockchain, rollup, or application chain on any virtual machine using Hyperlane. The integration work is expected to be completed within two months.
Cryptocurrencies
According to data from Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, in the top 25 ETFs ranked by assets after one month of listing (out of a total of 5,535 ETFs launched in the past 30 years), the BlackRock and Fidelity Bitcoin ETFs ranked first and second, respectively. ARKB and BITB also made the list.
The analyst states that this list only includes newly listed ETFs and does not include any conversions, such as the conversion of approximately 100 mutual funds to ETFs and GBTC, as they have pre-existing assets.
Rick Rieder, Global Fixed Income CIO and Global Allocation Head at BlackRock, stated that BlackRock currently has a very small exposure to Bitcoin, but this could change as public sentiment evolves. He believes that over the next few years, the company’s portfolios may gain more exposure to Bitcoin. Rieder said, “Time will tell if it becomes a significant part of the asset allocation framework, and I think it will be increasingly accepted over time.” He also stated, “As more and more people adopt Bitcoin as an asset, we think the upside potential is real, and that has been recognized recently.”
Kraken has announced that it has obtained a Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) license in the Netherlands, allowing the cryptocurrency exchange to operate in the country. In addition to the Netherlands, Kraken is also registered in Spain, Italy, and Ireland, and is actively seeking registration in other European markets.
A survey report from JPMorgan Chase shows that 78% of institutional traders do not plan to trade cryptocurrencies in the next five years. Only 7% of survey participants see blockchain as an influential technology, down from 25% in 2022.
Data from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, citing the U.S. Energy Information Administration, shows that Bitcoin mining electricity consumption will account for only 0.2% to 0.9% of global demand in 2023. Ki Young Ju states that, broadly speaking, BTC is three times more efficient than traditional bank security, with JPMorgan allocating 0.3% of its $33.8 trillion in client assets to IT security, totaling $12 billion annually. With a market value of $888 billion, Bitcoin’s electricity cost accounts for only 0.1% of its market value.
Spark, a lending protocol, has announced a partnership with Chronicle and Block Analitica to launch a new ETH staking yield oracle. The oracle will track the staking yield of ETH and provide a secure and convenient way for Spark to adjust the lending rates it offers for WETH, bringing a more efficient and secure ETH market to ETH suppliers and participants.
According to Santiment data, as Bitcoin’s price returns to around $45,000, traders have been withdrawing their tokens from exchanges for the third consecutive week, resulting in the lowest Bitcoin supply on exchanges in six years.
Important Economic Developments
According to CME “FedWatch,” the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25% to 5.50% in March is 81.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 18.5%. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged until May is 35.9%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 53.8% and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at 10.4%.
Golden Encyclopedia
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is a digital financial instrument designed to provide individuals interested in cryptocurrencies with investment opportunities in the Bitcoin market, eliminating the need for direct access to the underlying asset. Grayscale pioneered the launch of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), marking the birth of this groundbreaking Bitcoin fund, which allows investors to access BTC through a familiar investment vehicle.
