Author: BTC Old Miner, Source: Author’s Twitter @BtcOldminer
1. Electricity cost $30,000 (Shutdown price)
With a total network hashrate of 550E and electricity cost of 0.38 RMB/kWh, the shutdown price derived as a reference based on the current market mainstream mining machine T21 configuration. Historically, there has never been a situation where mainstream/flagship models from that year shut down at relatively moderate electricity prices.
2. Black Swan Support $48,000 (Shutdown price*160%)
Throughout history, there has never been a black swan event below 160% of the electricity cost within the current cycle. Therefore, based on the current electricity cost of 30,000 RMB per BTC, buying below 48,000 carries very low risk (although account floating losses may still exist).
3. Cost Support $52,000
Based on the electricity cost of 0.38 RMB/kWh and a three-year operational lifespan for the T21, the daily electricity + mining machine costs match the BTC price. When the price falls below this level, the risk of buying a BTC in the secondary market is far lower than the risk of starting mining with an initial investment of millions.
4. Bear Market Support $60,000
During bear markets, prices typically fluctuate around 200% of the shutdown price, approximately 60,000. From a medium to long-term investment perspective, this represents a relatively good bottom.
