Bitcoin Halving Approaching, Another Group of People Making Money
With just over a thousand blocks remaining until the Bitcoin halving, the Bitcoin ecosystem in April has undoubtedly become the focus of the market. Among them, the hottest topic is the concept of Runes, especially Runestone, which has a market value of $640 million. This has caused its floor price to skyrocket to 0.074 BTC, surpassing Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) and becoming the second-largest project in the NFT market.
Not only Runestone, but also in the magiceden marketplace, 8 out of the top 25 NFTs with the highest trading volume are Runes concepts. Since April, the NFT trading volume in the Bitcoin ecosystem has far exceeded that of Ethereum and Solana, with the Runes concept NFTs accounting for a significant portion.
Supporting these trading volumes are the “mining” projects, like the “mining machines,” where Runes projects will calculate the number of airdropped Runes tokens based on holding time and quantity.
RSIC is one of the earliest projects with “mining machine” attributes, and it has been over two months since its tokens were airdropped into wallets. With only about a week left until the Bitcoin halving is completed, how much money can early adopters who participated in Runes mining two months ago expect to earn?
Because Runestone has not yet announced specific airdrop details, and RSIC, which has more detailed airdrop rules, already has a trading market on the OTC platform whales.market, making it easier to calculate earnings, the following discussion will mainly focus on RSIC to calculate and discuss “how much money can the earliest participants in Runes mining expect to earn?”
Earnings Prediction: Using RSIC as an Example
Before calculating earnings, BlockBeats will first provide a brief introduction to the RSIC project for new users.
RSIC is a Bitcoin-based peer-to-peer runic allocation system, with its core building as a digitized interactive game. On this platform, players obtain runes by managing and operating RSIC tokens, which are expected to be officially “inscribed” on the Bitcoin network at some point in the future. Currently, the trading price of RSIC is 0.06 BTC. Regarding the RSIC Metaprotocol, the total supply of NFTs issued is 21,000, and the total supply of FT (tokens) is about 21 billion, with the project team retaining 10% of the NFT share.
Additionally, when mentioning RSIC, one of the most frequently discussed topics is the mystery of the project’s issuer. Initially, there were rumors that it might be the work of Casey, the founder of Ordinals, but this speculation was quickly refuted as Casey was deeply involved in the game world of “Baldur’s Gate 3”. The current widely accepted view is that RSIC may have been deployed by Rocktoshi, the founder of Node Monkeys. This inference is based on the fact that all the funds for the casting of parent inscriptions come from the same address. See Dr. Dog in-depth analysis on Twitter for more information.
The Trick to Maximizing Returns
The token airdrop rules of RSIC are very clear and consist of 4 variables.
The first variable is “Flat Common”: This variable involves the number of blocks held and specifies that each block can receive 21 RSIC tokens, with a total of no more than 30% of the total airdrop amount.
The second variable is “Boosted Acceleration”: Users holding Boost Accelerators can double their mining efficiency. This is a related boost logic Easter egg inscribed on block number 4703400000000.
The third variable is “Random Allocation”: It accounts for 25% of the total airdrop, plus the unallocated Flat and Boost portions. Each RSIC corresponds to a specific type code symbol. When the last digit of a block’s hash value matches the user’s RSIC symbol, the user can receive 336 RS tokens. Considering the 16 possible values for the last digit of the hash value, theoretically, there is one successful chance every 16 blocks, equivalent to an average of 21 tokens per block.
The fourth variable is “Halfening Lottery”: At the specific halving block 840,000, the project team will randomly select 5 addresses holding RSIC Metaprotocol NFTs and distribute 15% of the total tokens (allocation ratio of 5%, 4%, 3%, 2%, and 1%). Users who hold from block 830,000 to block 840,000 will receive one lottery ticket for each block held. If sold before the halving, they will lose their eligibility for the lottery.
Users who hold both RSIC and Boost are expected to mine a total of 63 tokens per block, while users who only hold RSIC are expected to mine a total of 42 tokens per block. It is worth noting that even if you have sold RSIC, the quotas accumulated during the holding period are still recorded in your wallet address.
Additionally, it is important to note that only activated RSIC addresses are eligible to receive airdrops. Any RSIC that has been transferred or traded on the market is considered to be activated. This operation aims to ensure that only active wallets can participate in token distribution, excluding any dormant wallets, and ensuring the fairness and activity of the airdrop.
Easily Earn $10,000 Before the Halving
Currently, on the OTC platform whales.market, the buyer price for RSIC runic tokens is mainly concentrated at 0.01u, corresponding to a total market value of $210 million. Recent transaction records show the highest prices at 0.025, 0.0349, and 0.0374 USD, corresponding to market values of $500 million, $730 million, and $780 million, respectively, which are close to Runestone’s $640 million market value.
However, compared to the continuous rise of Runestone, the NFT market for RSIC has shown a downward trend. Optimistically, compared to the peak price of 0.13 BTC, although the market value of RSIC has decreased, a significant portion of its value is actually reflected in the tokens.
According to BlockBeats’ analysis, currently purchasing an RSIC at a price of 0.06 BTC and paying an additional 0.005 BTC to purchase a boost accelerator, the total cost is approximately $4,700. With 1,167 blocks remaining until the halving, it is expected to receive 63 tokens per block, for a total of 73,521 tokens. This means that the token cost at the halving point is approximately $0.0639. This price is much higher than the OTC price on whales.market.
If we do not consider the potential value that RSIC may have after the airdrop of Runes tokens, and only consider the cost and price of the tokens obtained, it is clear that buying tokens directly on the OTC market is a more suitable choice.
According to information obtained from early users by BlockBeats, the price of RSIC when it first launched on the magiceden market was 0.02 BTC. At that time, purchasing an RSIC and holding it until the halving period, without using boost, is expected to earn 520,000 points. Calculated at a conservative price of $0.01, the profit is approximately $5,200, plus the value increase of RSIC itself, which brings an additional profit of 0.04 BTC from the purchase price of 0.02 BTC, equivalent to $2,800. With additional projects like the Rune Mania Mine’s airdrop to RSIC Boost holders, a conservative estimate of total comprehensive earnings is around $10,000. If boost is held, the expected points will reach 700,000, with a corresponding profit of approximately $13,000.
From a non-conservative perspective, if RSIC is obtained entirely through airdrops, it is equivalent to directly obtaining an NFT worth 0.06 BTC, with a profit of approximately $4,260. Assuming 700,000 points are calculated at a price of $0.035, the profit would be $24,500. Adding the $2,000 profit from other project airdrops, the total profit would be approximately $30,000.
In the short term, the Bitcoin halving and the official launch of Runes may trigger strong market emotions (FOMO). From a longer-term perspective, as the Runes protocol created by Casey specifically for the community, its influence may be no less than that of Ordinals. The market value of the Runes protocol’s flagship and brc20 may be comparable or even have a certain impact on them.
Considering the current market situation, Ordinals has a market value of $1.5 billion, Sats has a market value of $990 million, and Runestone has a current market value of $640 million. From this, it can be inferred that early participants in Runes mining may still have some room for profit growth.
