Why did Standard Chartered Bank predict that BTC will surge to 100000 before the US election

Source: Blockchain Knight
Geoffrey Kendrick, the Head of Forex and Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that the price of BTC may soar to $100,000 before the US presidential election in November this year.
In an email to The Block, Kendrick elaborated on the factors driving this prediction and provided a more detailed outlook on the price trajectory of BTC.
Kendrick stated, “As the US election approaches, I expect the price of BTC to reach $100,000, and if Trump wins, the price of BTC will reach $150,000 by the end of the year.”
He pointed out, “The Biden administration recently showed a practical approach in approving the spot ETH ETF, but Biden’s subsequent veto undermined the efforts to repeal SAB 121. So Trump is more favorable than Biden.”
Kendrick also emphasized the potential impact of the non-farm payroll data to be released in the US tomorrow on the price of BTC.
He noted, “Favorable data could trigger new all-time highs over the weekend, paving the way for reaching $80,000 by the end of June. If the data is ‘friendly,’ I expect BTC price to hit a new all-time high over the weekend.”
The analyst reiterated his long-term price prediction, stating that BTC will reach $150,000 by the end of the year and $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Kendrick emphasized, “It is worth noting that by the end of 2024, a price of $150,000 would place BTC’s market value in the $3 trillion club, following yesterday’s NVDA market value reaching $3 trillion.”
Two months ago, Standard Chartered Bank released a research report expressing optimism about the prospects of BTC and Ethereum by the end of 2024 and beyond.
The bank’s analysts projected that BTC could reach $150,000, while Ethereum could reach $8,000. The launch of spot BTC ETFs in the US supported the above predictions, with significant inflows of funds into the fund.
Kendrick and Suki Cooper explained, “The rapid inflow of funds into the new spot BTC ETF dominates, with most of the inflow likely coming from sticky pension-type funds.”
This underscores the stability of the trend in BTC investments.
Standard Chartered Bank’s bullish outlook on BTC valuation is based on three key analyses.
First, drawing on the response of the gold market to the introduction of US gold ETFs, the bank expects BTC to rise to the level of $200,000, 4.3 times higher than the price before the ETF launch.
Secondly, based on the current price of gold, an analysis suggests that the level of BTC is around $190,000 by optimizing an 80% gold and 20% BTC investment portfolio.
Finally, based on the linear inference of the correlation between ETF inflows and BTC prices, assuming the total ETF inflow is near the bank’s estimated $75 billion midpoint, BTC could reach $250,000.
The bank points out that these analyses all indicate that “$200,000 is the ‘correct’ price level for BTC by the end of 2025, and is likely to be the new midpoint of the trading range by then.”
“The research further indicates that if ETF inflows continue rapidly or reserve managers purchase BTC, it is possible that at some point in 2025, the price could overshoot to $250,000.”