Author: Zen, PANews
After more than a decade of development, the blockchain industry appears poised at the crossroads of widespread application. From the DeFi boom to the NFT craze, and from the explosion of Play-to-Earn (P2E) games to the rise of Web3 social networks, along with the current buzz around concepts like “DePin” and “Web3+AI”, the industry has seen countless ecosystems and projects emerge. However, despite this proliferation, none have successfully penetrated the mainstream.
Broadly speaking, aside from societal biases, the complexity of blockchain and encrypted applications—such as smart contracts, addresses, and private key management—serves both as an innovative departure from tradition and a significant barrier. Enhancing user perception of Web3 elements often leads to stark contrasts in accessibility, high costs, and poor user experiences, which remains a primary obstacle to widespread adoption.
However, technological innovations rarely achieve immediate consumer integration from inception. It is certain that any nascent technology requires extensive iterative upgrades over time. As the saying goes, “learn from the past to build the future,” drawing inspiration from experiences and practices in related industries or domains can provide valuable insights and creativity for the Web3 sector.
Mass adoption requires low barriers and simplification. Reflecting on the early exploration and development of the computer industry draws intriguing parallels with the current challenges of Web3. In the 1960s and 70s, computers were primarily used for academic and governmental purposes. Operating solely through command lines, they demanded substantial expertise, making them inaccessible to the general public. As the industry evolved, computers gradually permeated broader socio-economic domains.
By the late 1970s, the entrepreneurial fervor around personal computers saw legends like Steve Jobs and Bill Gates entering the stage. Their future empires were built on the graphical user interface (GUI), a format now commonplace but then a revolutionary breakthrough developed at the Palo Alto Research Center (PARC). Contrasting with command-line interfaces, GUIs significantly reduced user operational burdens and were visually more appealing, thereby lowering the learning curve for new users.
In 1979, Steve Jobs was captivated by this technology at PARC, swiftly recognizing its potential for personal computers. Implementing this interface in Apple’s products, he successively released the Apple Lisa and Macintosh computers (later abbreviated as Mac). Microsoft soon followed with the Windows 1.0 operating system, integrating GUI concepts. As GUIs commercialized, their intuitive, user-friendly nature drastically lowered the barrier to computer usage, enabling ordinary people to operate PCs without extensive technical knowledge. Over a decade of iterative advancements transformed personal computers into commonplace electronic products for the masses.
In the business world, numerous successes follow the principle of Occam’s razor—simplifying products to achieve success. They converge on the notion that products simplified with low entry barriers are best suited for the general public. Beyond GUIs as a quintessential example of user-friendly products, grasping the long-tail market in the internet industry has been another secret to commercial success.
Can the long-tail market be replicated in Web3? With the advent of e-commerce platforms and new retail models, cultural and entertainment products have transcended physical limitations. The dominance of popularity-driven economics of the old era gave rise to the signature theory of Web2.0, known as the “Long Tail Theory”. Initially applied to platforms like Amazon and Netflix, this theory highlighted that while individual niche products may have low demand and sales, their cumulative market share can rival or even exceed that of popular products.
Today, the Long Tail Theory spans multiple fields, even converting traditional asset management firms staunchly adhering to the “80/20 rule” to target non-mainstream investors. However, in today’s Web3 landscape, no ecosystem has truly met the personalized needs of different retail investors to create a market scale through aggregation. Instead, under the Matthew effect, PvP among users continually points to the final outcome of the “80/20” rule, leaving retail investors devoid of confidence and vitality.
Exploring whether the long tail market can be achieved in the Web3 sector first requires clarifying the basic conditions for leveraging this effect: extremely low costs for storing, disseminating resources, a plethora of small niche markets, wide geographical markets, and a vast network of users capable of discovering and meeting their personalized needs. Taking a panoramic view of Web3, the TON ecosystem is currently the most suitable and resource-integrated project for developing a long-tail market.
Why is “TON” the answer? Although abbreviated similarly, today’s “TON” (The Open Network) is not entirely equivalent to Telegram’s “TON” launched in 2019, which was canceled in 2020 following legal disputes. However, as a project supported by the community and other developer teams post-Telegram, “TON” continues to advance. Despite losing direct ties with Telegram, it remains the only public chain recognized by Telegram’s official and its founder Pavel Durov.
As a privacy-focused encrypted communication tool, Telegram’s cultural DNA naturally aligns with cryptocurrencies and has been a hub for the crypto community since its inception in 2013. Today, Telegram boasts 900 million users globally, spanning continents like Asia, Europe, and the Americas, with a growth rate of 20% annually, expected to surpass 1 billion users this year. This vast user base uniquely positions TON’s ecosystem as the leader compared to other native crypto ecosystems. Such immense potential user base makes it impossible for other crypto projects to match its scale.
Apart from its “mass strategy,” another ace up TON’s sleeve is its simple and open Web3 ecosystem built on Telegram bots. Telegram bots help users execute transactions, provide information, and offer gaming services directly on the Telegram platform without installation, akin to mini-programs in WeChat, with over 360 million monthly users. Just as GUIs simplified computer operations, Telegram’s mini-programs allow TON ecosystem users to smoothly interact with various applications within the ecosystem without navigating multiple webpages.
The vast and diverse global user base naturally harbors rich demands and interests, providing TON’s ecosystem with a potential large long-tail market. Moreover, the ease of developing and integrating Telegram bots enables developers to quickly create and distribute various bots at low costs, facilitating the emergence of a long-tail market. Furthermore, leveraging Telegram’s natural advantages in communication and social networking, bots facilitate community outreach and promotion, easily achieving viral marketing within target audiences and communities.
Creating blockbuster products like Notcoin and Catizen
Low entry barriers + effective social media dissemination = blockbuster hits, a formula proven multiple times in Web2. Notably, recent examples include the 2022 phenomenon “Sheep” on WeChat, earlier “Jump Jump,” and classics like “QQ Farm” and “Parking Grab” on QQ Space.
In Web3, this formula remains valid and has begun manifesting within the TON ecosystem. The Telegram gaming project Notcoin amassed 35 million active users within a few months this year, solely allowing users to earn game currency by tapping the screen. Pavel Durov previously praised its impact on the Telegram/TON ecosystem’s developers. Notcoin’s breakout success and subsequent listing on Binance and OKX further attracted attention to the TON ecosystem.
Notcoin’s triumph demonstrates TON’s potential to integrate niche markets into a long tail, leveraging its inherent high traffic advantage to create flagship products. Meanwhile, Catizen, a synthesis game combining metaverse, GameFi, AI concepts, maintains a simple and easy-to-operate style without sacrificing gaming experience like Notcoin.
In terms of incentive mechanisms, Catizen employs a play-to-airdrop model to engage players with added benefits during gameplay. Since its beta release on March 19, 2024, Catizen has swiftly become one of the hottest GameFi mini-programs within the Telegram x TON ecosystem. Currently, Catizen boasts a user base exceeding 20 million, achieving 5 million user growth within the first week of June, with over 1 million on-chain users and peak daily activity reaching 3.4 million. Additionally, Catizen has consistently topped the ecosystem applications list in The Open League’s second and third seasons. Supported by the TON ecosystem, this game has the potential to become another blockbuster following Notcoin.
Benefiting from its vast user base and unique Web3 ecosystem, coupled with Telegram bots’ easy development, user-friendly interfaces, and seamless user experience, TON (The Open Network), still in its early stages, demonstrates immense potential, garnering increasingly widespread recognition. Pantera Capital’s significant investment underscores this potential.
While current industry focus on blockbuster products like Notcoin and Catizen with tens of millions of users overlooks TON’s broader and sustainable influence on global niche markets, the TON ecosystem undeniably emerges as a vibrant platform. Nonetheless, its long-term success will require further validation over time.
