Yesterday (20 JUN), on the macro front, the initial jobless claims in the United States slightly exceeded expectations, recording 238,000 people, while the new housing starts in May decreased by 5.5%, reaching the lowest level in four years. The US bond yields maintained a slight volatile trend and closed lower, with the three major stock indexes showing mixed movements, with the S&P and Nasdaq falling by 0.25% and 0.79% respectively, while the Dow rose by 0.77%.
Source: Farside Investors
In the digital currency market, BTC spot ETF saw a continuous outflow for several days, causing the price to continue its downward trend, breaking the $64,800 support level and currently oscillating around $64,000. The options market sentiment is not favorable, with a significant Long Risky Flow of buying puts and selling calls for BTC by the end of June, and a similar strong selling pressure for bullish options for ETH by the end of July, leading to an overall downward movement in the Vol Skew. At the same time, the implied volatility levels are also decreasing, with BTC/ETH dropping by around 3%/7% respectively. Looking at the data from the past three months, the BTC ATM IV is approaching its historical low point.
Source: Deribit (as of 21 JUN 16:00 UTC+8)
Source: SignalPlus, IV overall levels are declining, with BTC reaching historical lows
Source: SignalPlus, influenced by intraday trading, the front end Vol Skew collapses, while the forward end slightly rises
Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of ETH trading
Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of BTC trading; 28 JUN 24 Risky Flow
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
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