“Editor’s Picks of the Week” is a “functional” section of Odaily Planet Daily. While Odaily Planet Daily covers a large amount of real-time information each week, many high-quality in-depth analysis articles may be hidden within the news feed and hot news, passing by unnoticed.
Therefore, our editorial department will select some high-quality articles worth reading and collecting from the content published in the past 7 days every Saturday. From the perspectives of data analysis, industry judgment, and viewpoint output, we aim to bring new inspiration to you in the world of cryptocurrency.
Now, let’s read together:
Investment and Entrepreneurship
In-Depth Research: The Subtle Relationship Between BTC Spot ETF and CME Massive Short Positions
At the end of 2017, when CME officially launched BTC futures trading, it coincided with the end of the bull market in 2017.
So far, CME’s total BTC futures position has reached 150,800 BTC, equivalent to 10 billion US dollars, accounting for 28.75% of the entire BTC futures trading market. The current BTC futures market is no longer controlled by traditional cryptocurrency exchanges and retail investors, but has fallen into the hands of professional institutional traders in the United States.
CME’s futures premium fluctuates in a regular pattern with each monthly contract expiration (automatic rollover to the next month’s contract). This is similar to the premium of the rollover contracts on traditional cryptocurrency exchanges, which tend to have a higher premium at the time of contract generation and gradually flatten out as the contract approaches expiration.
Hedge funds or institutions have bought a large amount on US stock ETFs and opened an equivalent amount of short positions on CME, conducting risk-free fixed arbitrage once a month, achieving a stable annualized return of 12.7%.
Cryptocurrency Investment J Curve Rule: Maximizing Profits When Enthusiasm Declines
Escape Guide: How to Master the Selling Opportunity in Bull Markets?
When users flock to download Coinbase to buy cryptocurrencies, the signs of the market top have become evident.
BTC’s monthly chart is struggling to break the record of 7 consecutive increases.
Observing BTC’s unrealized net profit/loss, HODL supply, long-term trend indicator MVRV Z-Score, Bitcoin futures open interest, Ethereum gas fees, social media activity, and psychological support levels.
Who has made money in this bull market? Who has made money in this bull market?
Bitcoin holders, CEX, Tether, and other CeFi platforms, the operation teams of some public chains and DeFi products, and coin issuance projects with a high market value whose main purpose is to sell tokens (retail investors should avoid).
Why have altcoins performed poorly in this market cycle?
The hidden concern of token inflation behind the surge of new projects. The insufficient new liquidity entering the market brings huge dilution and selling pressure when unlocked.
To address this, exchanges can strengthen the fairness of token distribution; teams can prioritize community distribution and a larger fund pool for real users; a higher percentage of tokens can be unlocked at the time of token issuance (measures such as implementing a progressive sales tax may be implemented to prevent dumping).
When the market is dull, accept this stablecoin appreciation strategy
The article mainly introduces the use of stablecoins through major DeFi protocols to achieve relatively low-risk and high-yield interest strategies, covering the Ethereum, Solana, Starknet, Scroll, Aptos, and Sui ecosystems.
Also recommended: “LUCIDA: How Crypto Quantitative Fund Managers Obtain Alpha?” “Tokenomics Behind Meme Coin Snipers’ Hundredfold Returns” “Tracking Smart Money on the Chain: Top 10 Value Coin Accumulation Addresses”.
Decoding Airdrops: How FDV and Token Economics Affect Token Prices?
In recent years, the launch of FDV has varied: the median in 2020 was $140 million (DeFi protocols), soared to $1.4 billion in 2021 (NFTs, games), declined in 2022 (L2 to $800 million). Rebounded in 2023 and 2024 ($2.4 billion and $1 billion), featuring alt L1 and Solana projects.
FDV ignores short-term market shocks; therefore, the circulating supply (public supply) is important. High FDV and low circulating supply tokens like World Coin ($800 million vs. $34 billion FDV) may distort the true valuation.
Airdropped tokens distributed to promote protocol adoption are usually quickly cashed out by recipients. Although initially profitable, most airdropped tokens will depreciate in the long term, except for outliers like BONK (with a return rate of about 8 times).
Airdrops
Controversial ZKSync Airdrop: Examining the Dilemma of Web3 Project Cold Start
Looking back at Optimism and Arbitrum, the number of interactions is an important reference indicator in specific activity settings, and users with more frequent interactions usually receive more rewards. However, ZKSync seems to disregard this unwritten rule. The calculation of rewards in ZKSync does not involve the dimension of interaction frequency; instead, it focuses on the amount of funds in individual accounts and the willingness to allocate risk assets.
Intensive interactions bring about the problem of witch attacks, and proof-of-stake brings about the problem of monopolies. For Web3 projects, when designing cold start mechanisms, it is important to carefully consider the value user profile for their own products and design corresponding mechanisms based on the current environment to effectively incentivize value users while avoiding witch attacks.
Which VC-invested projects are more likely to distribute airdrops?
a16z: 15/169 = 8.87%; Paradigm: 10/92 = 10.86%; Binance Labs: 19/216 = 8.79%; Coinbase Ventures: 25/394 = 6.34%; DragonFly Capital: 25/149 = 7.38%.
Also recommended: “Four Years of Cryptocurrency Grassroots: The Development History of the Mining Industry”.
Bitcoin and its Ecosystem
Can Bitcoin Become a Productive Asset?
Bitcoin is undergoing a significant evolution, and there are various perspectives on its nature.
Considering the ideal Bitcoin-based investment product, the gold standard product will combine three characteristics: local Bitcoin consensus, local Bitcoin assets, and local Bitcoin returns. Such a product will closely mimic the perfect fit for Bitcoin.
Ethereum and Scaling
Interpreting Pectra: Ethereum’s Next Upgrade
Pectra is planned to be launched in the fourth quarter of 2024 or the first quarter of 2025. It combines two previously planned upgrades: Prague (for the execution layer) and Electra (for the consensus layer).
By merging these upgrades, Pectra aims to bring multiple ambitious improvements to Ethereum, making it more flexible and optimized than ever before. Regular Ethereum accounts will be more programmable, L2 will be more affordable, smart contracts will be more efficient, and validators will have more flexible management.
Investing in L2 vs. Investing in ETH: Which Has a Brighter Future?
Although the number of listed L2s has increased, their total fully diluted valuation (FDV) as a proportion of ETH remains unchanged.
Each new L2 token listing actually dilutes the valuation of L2 tokens listed before.
Multi-Ecosystem and Cross-chain
A Comprehensive Exploration of Solana’s Ecosystem Development: The Impact of L2 and Application Chains
Application chains do not pay fees in SOL or use SOL as the transaction fee token, so they do not directly contribute value to SOL unless SOL is re-staked for economic security purposes. However, they bring obvious benefits to the SVM ecosystem. Just like the network effect of EVM, more SVM forks and application chains will strengthen the network effect of SVM.
For Solana, Rollups will be mostly abstracted for end users.
Unlike Ethereum, the Solana mainnet does not intend to become a “B2B chain”; it has always been and will always be a consumer chain.
Is there still room for new players in Solana wallets with the traffic dividend?
There is not much space left for new players in Solana wallets. PhantoThe status of M and Backpack is difficult to shake. Solana’s new wallet opportunities lie in directions that leading projects are unwilling to try, such as focusing on embedded scenarios, developer-oriented approaches, serving enterprise-level users, and being Web2-friendly in vertical directions.
Outside of wallets, the “traffic entrance” dividend still exists. During the process of the remarkable rise of the two Solana ecosystem meme coins BOME and SLERF, the Solana ecosystem’s tg bot has received huge dividends.
Compared to Ethereum and Solana, what else does TON’s DEX need?
TON’s performance and scalability are the only ones that can stand alongside Solana among all public chains. However, TON’s ecosystem is a combination of Web2 and Web3 modes, which will dilute the use of Web3 in technology and deepen it in technology.
If Telegram Wallet is responsible for the CEX experience, TON Space and DEX can interact on both PC and mobile devices. Finally, Telegram’s Mini App and Bot will also serve as the trading front-end for DEX or CEX functions. These designs satisfy the optimization of the trading experience, but the backend native interaction on the chain is clearly lagging.
The DeFi solution designed for Telegram Mini App, and LayerPixel incubated by TON public chain’s launchpad TonUP, are expected to complement the functions of TON DEX.
CeFi
Moving towards Mass Adoption: Analyzing the Intrinsic Logic of Paypal Stablecoin Payments
The reason why Paypal is turning its attention to crypto is simple: it meets the demands and is practical (fast, cheap, global payments). PYUSD is building a true stablecoin commercial scenario, providing mainstream consumers and merchants with a nearly frictionless and trustworthy payment experience they expect.
Paypal divides the evolution of Mass Adoption into three stages: awareness awakening (concept introduction), payment utility (integration), and ubiquity (stablecoin payments).
Understanding Tether’s New Platform Alloy in One Article: A New Synthetic Dollar Platform Supported by XAU₮
Tether announced the launch of the open platform “Alloy by Tether”, allowing the creation of different binding assets supported by Tether Gold. Vaults are the core of Alloy by Tether, used to store user collateral, unissued aUSD₮, and user collateralized minting positions (CMP) information. Vaults will set specific liquidation thresholds based on liquidation points or maximum MTV, with the liquidation point set at 75%.
The uniqueness of aUSD₮ lies in its over-collateralization by Tether Gold (XAU₮), which is backed by physical gold stored in Switzerland. Users can use XAU₮ as collateral through Ethereum smart contracts to mint aUSD₮.
GameFi
IOSG Ventures: Deeply Cultivating the Crypto Game Downmarket, Exploring the Competitiveness Behind Ronin
The perceptions of project parties, VCs, players, and retail investors differ greatly: VCs see it as a full-chain game, a ground-breaking gameplay innovation; project parties see it as a AAA game; exchanges see it as Web2 user increment; players see it as a way to earn in-game currency; and retail investors see it as high multiples.
Crypto natives overlook this very Web2 logic. The core competitiveness of blockchain games lies in the Southeast Asian grassroots promotion channels/localized operations. In addition to game players, there is a complex business ecosystem surrounding P2E games, such as internet cafes, gold farming guilds, blockchain game education media, software and hardware developers, etc. Players access new game information and mature player communities through these highly localized channels, because they may start playing a certain game due to friends, neighbors, teachers, colleagues, etc.
Ronin is like a solitary island, firmly capturing users’ attention and money within its ecosystem. P2E never dies, but only grows in suitable soil. The cake in the downmarket is the elephant in the room. The true competitiveness behind Ronin is Sky Mavis’ localized distribution and operational capabilities.
Web3
Bankless: Reigniting the Market? Key Events in the Recent AI+Crypto Track
OctaneX, showcased on the latest iPad Pro, is a 3D design software supported by Render Network.
Dynamic TAO, as one of the most anticipated proposals in Bittensor’s history, brings fundamental changes to the network: empowering TAO holders and opening up the dynamic market of subnets.
NEAR adds “user-driven AI” to its roadmap for the next phase.
Weekly Hot Topics Recap
In the past week,
Biden
will participate in a Bitcoin roundtable meeting; the US CFTC is investigating Jump Crypto;
In terms of policies and macro markets,
the US SEC is requesting Ripple to pay $102.6 million in settlement, opposing their request for a $10 million fine;
the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) will list the first Bitcoin spot ETF;
the governor of Oklahoma signed a bill exempting Bitcoin miners from sales tax on electricity;
In terms of opinions and voices,
the former speaker of the US House of Representatives: stablecoins may become one of the largest buyers of US government debt, helping the US avoid a debt crisis;
Tether CEO: USDT is one of the top three buyers of US short-term Treasury bills globally;
Circle CEO: stablecoins will account for 10% of the global economic currency in the next decade;
Glassnode: the market is volatile, but ordinary BTC investors are still profitable;
Analysis: ETH exchange balance reaches an 8-year low, spot ETF listing may cause supply shock;
Consensys: the SEC will end its investigation into Ethereum 2.0 and will not charge ETH sales as securities transactions;
21Shares co-founder: lack of collateral will not affect the demand for Ethereum spot ETF, liquidity management is crucial;
Forbes: CZ’s current net worth is estimated at $61 billion, potentially holding 94 million BNB;
10x Research: dumping of large amounts of altcoins is weighing down Bitcoin;
ZKsync Chinese Community: Matter Labs’ uncompromising principles will ruin ZKsync;
Curve founder: fully repaid $10 million in bad debts on Curve lending platform, clarifying UwU Lend hack and CRV token burn-related misinformation;
Farcaster co-founder: Warpcast targets English-speaking users, with no plans for international expansion;
Tether CEO: aUSDT stable mechanism is different from USDT and requires collateralization with Tether Gold;
Arthur Hayes: Dogecoin ETF will be approved before this cycle ends, increasing positions in PENDLE and DOGE, speculation on the sale of US bonds by the Bank of Japan may lead to speculation about USD liquidity, cryptocurrency is expected to usher in a new bull market;
He Yi: Binance’s listing strategy does not affect the flow of funds, and many VC in the crypto industry are also not doing well;
Institutional, large companies, and top project aspects,
Tiger Securities
introduces virtual asset trading services to retail investors in Hong Kong;
Paradigm
open sources the EVM compiler Revmc, aiming to improve EVM performance;
Binance will launch HODLer airdrops for BNB holders;
Coinbase
launches pre-market trading services;
LayerZero
announces token economic model, airdrop controversy, users need to donate $0.1 for each ZRO received;
Ethena Labs
and Symbiotic, LayerZero trial the general re-collateralization framework;
ZK Nation
announces open application for ZK airdrop;
In the meme field, the market cap of Trump-themed meme coin DJT temporarily surpassed TRUMP; Arkham offers a $150,000 reward to find the creator of the Trump-themed coin DJT, and ZachXBT has completed the task;
In terms of security,
Kraken
and CertiK publicly clashed on social media over a series of serious security vulnerabilities… It’s been another eventful week.
See you next time with the “Selected Weekly Editorials” series.
Portal link.
Until next time~
