Author: Fang Xiangdong
The majority of people have experienced a roller coaster ride from profit to break-even and then to loss in this market. Even though they bought the 10x coins in this market, they ultimately did not make any money. This reminds me of the many fans who have asked me why I said this is the last bull market. The reason I said that is because with the introduction of ETFs, more institutional investors have entered the market, making it not as easy to make money as in the bull markets of 2017 and 2021. We have already gone from being beginners to experiencing a hellish market. The previous corrections of around 50% were already quite significant, but this time, 90% of the coins have experienced a correction of 70%. It is still uncertain when the correction will be complete, but all the chips are covered in blood, and the long side keeps on getting blown up.
After experiencing this, Xia Ge (the author) has learned his lesson. In the future, he will aim to make profits and exit in a timely manner, and set stop-loss orders to limit losses. Despite the significant drop in this market, he remains optimistic about the future. Moreover, the coins that were previously expected to not reach a 10x return now have a chance. However, it is important to have good personal trading strategies and not always go all-in.
Today, Xia Ge has observed many coins and organized the ones listed on Coinbase, Upbit, and Binance. He also reviewed many coins from the previous bull market. Xia Ge’s first observation is that a bull market is not a true bull market without altcoins. He often uses the example of real estate speculation, where after the prices in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have surged, they will definitely move on to places like Hangzhou, Suzhou, Chongqing, Chengdu, and any other place where profits can be made. Capital will not miss any corner or opportunity.
Recently, Xia Ge has observed many coins and found that this wave is similar to the one in 2021. Many altcoins are following a similar pattern. Xia Ge’s second observation is that many coins that didn’t rise much in the first round will rise significantly in the second round. Most coins have similar multiples, just like properties in Shenzhen that went from 10,000 to 100,000, or properties in Hangzhou that went from 3,000 to 30,000. The total price may not have changed, but the multiples are similar. Although many new coins have been added this time, many of them have not risen in this round and even hit a new historical low. However, as long as the projects still have chips in the hands of the institutions, they will definitely be pumped. After all, the institutional investors holding billions of virtual coins would feel worse if they don’t find a way to cash out.
The market follows a four-year cycle, with a bull market occurring in one year. During this year, project teams sell around 80% of their chips and then use the remaining three years to buy back the coins they sold at around 10% of the price. This cycle repeats itself. After this round of pumping, Pepe’s first wallet, held by the institutions, is left with only 22% of its holdings.
At the beginning of each bull market, there will be a trigger point that sets it off. In 2021, it was the rise of DeFi, and this year it is ordinary coins (ordi). However, each round will also have projects that attract more fans from outside the industry, such as Shiba Inu (shib) and Hanabi (花火) in the last bull market. There will definitely be similar projects in this bull market as well. Xia Ge will continue to research and invest in new projects. Some people say it could be smart contract protocols similar to the Bitcoin ecosystem, while others say it could be more fair meme projects. Xia Ge has previously invested in 1U’s WLD, which had the lowest PEPE Floki token, as well as the earliest 100x coin, KAS. In the future, he will strive to research and invest in the next round of explosive coins and cash out together.
The money earned in a bull market is definitely not from the cryptocurrency industry itself.
The first step of a bull market: insiders buy in.
The second step: insiders go all-in.
The third step: insiders go all-in with leverage, and outsiders enter the market.
The fourth step: insiders go all-in with leverage, outsiders buy in, and go all-in.
The fifth step: insiders go all-in with leverage, outsiders buy in, go all-in with leveraged loans, and even real companies and some listed companies start buying in large quantities, just like Meitu did in the last bull market.
The sixth step: many real companies and even more listed companies start buying in large quantities. You can see digital currency everywhere, whether you go to the gym or attend a social gathering. At this point, the bull market is about to end. What stage do you think we are currently in?
