Everyone has a feeling that the market is not rising now. BTC has been fluctuating between $60,000 and $70,000 for three months. Altcoins had some momentum earlier, but now they are losing steam and are diving. Even newly listed coins cannot sustain their momentum and peak shortly after going live. The whole market is lukewarm, neither hot nor cold.
For many people, the phrase “neither hot nor cold” may seem too peaceful. Because recently, many people have been cursing. There are plenty of people cursing the shorters and plenty of people blaming Binance for listing too many coins and causing the market to lose liquidity. Many also blame KOLs for leading the market astray and causing significant losses.
For these people, it feels like the bull market is over and the bear market is looming. This market is no longer lukewarm. These people came to this market to make money. During the bull market, money was everywhere, and every project should have been able to rise and profit. They gambled their lives on this. After making a fortune, they would achieve financial freedom. They came to this market to make money, full of confidence, investing most of their wealth, even adding leverage and debts to rush in.
Thanks to everyone’s courage, the market’s scythe has long been prepared. Various tactics are being repeated, and new concepts are emerging one after another, all targeting us, the retail investors. Do we want a new narrative? No problem, we have Bitcoin’s layer 2, AI, DePin, ReStaking, or simply Meme coins that claim to be launched fairly and fight against VCs. They all make their appearance with fanfare.
The most crucial aspect is the KOLs, the market promoters, the community influencers, and the ones responsible for listing on exchanges. Technology, innovation, business models, user scenarios – none of these matter. What matters is who can run the fastest. We all understand this. Everyone is here to make money, including the project teams, exchanges, KOLs, and VCs. They all want to make money, and they make it from us, the retail investors. They are mostly professional teams who understand the market better and know the tricks.
But is there still a chance?
In my opinion, Web3 is the trend, and blockchain is a technological revolution. Its applications are becoming more widespread, and digital currencies are gradually being accepted by mainstream markets. The approval of BTC and ETH spot ETFs is a clear proof of that. This direction is not wrong; it is an emerging market full of opportunities. However, wherever there are opportunities, there are also speculations and risks. If you want to follow the market and enjoy its development dividends, you need to keep your eyes open and maintain a calm mindset.
I believe there are some common sense points that may be worth mentioning, even if they may not necessarily be useful:
The market is not declining: It has only been two months since Bitcoin halved, and its price has been relatively stable. The enthusiasm and expectations for the market are still high. Based on historical patterns, the year and a half after a halving event is usually worth looking forward to. However, it is unrealistic and impossible to expect the market to only rise and never fall.
There is no free lunch: You are here to invest, not to pick up money. There is no such thing as a free lunch in this world. Most of the money you see has possible traps behind it. It is essential to do some research. Airdrops have been popular in the past two years. Why are there airdrops? Because you can bring user value and community value. If this value no longer exists, it is normal for airdrop rules to change. Recent projects’ airdrops have become increasingly sophisticated, and it is a result of being forced to adapt.
Don’t expect to get rich overnight: Getting rich overnight is a gambler’s mentality, and it often ends up with losing everything. Stable and wise investments are more important than chasing short-term gains.
The value of the project comes first: If you look at history, all projects that have survived and weathered bull and bear markets have brought value to the industry, especially through technological or business model innovations. Most projects that rely solely on concepts do not last long.
Decentralization and security are fundamental: This is worth emphasizing repeatedly. Web3 is a decentralized network. Without decentralization, it is not real Web3. Without decentralization, there is no trustlessness, and there is no secure foundation. Of course, while Rollups and DApps may not have their own chains, they rely on the security of Layer 1 to ensure trustlessness. Therefore, the security of Layer 1 is intuitively important. This is also why BTC has the highest value. Its decentralization and total investment in network development are unmatched.
Code should be open source: A decentralized project that is not open source is basically a joke. Non-open source projects do not deserve to be part of Web3. If you are an internet company that does not want to be regulated, what can you rely on for trust? On the other hand, a project that dares to be open source must have strong capabilities, significant technological innovation and barriers, and a trustworthy team. They are on a different level that is hard to imitate. Such projects are much more reliable.
Feasibility of the project: This is specifically mentioned because many Web3 projects only talk about grand visions and stories. Some projects don’t even have a technical team. Projects without technological feasibility are often closed source because once they are open source, their technical vulnerabilities may be exposed, or they may not be able to achieve trustlessness. The value of the project will also be uncovered.
These are purely personal opinions, and everyone should not take them too seriously. They are for reference only.
This article is entirely informal and does not provide any investment advice. Take a look and have a laugh.
