Author: NingNing Source: X, @0xNing0x
The lackluster performance of $ZK and $ZRO has posed a challenge to the traditional valuation methods used to assess new coins in the crypto market, such as comparative valuation and post-VC valuation. We can no longer ignore the weight of market sentiment and community opinion in the pricing of new coins.
Currently, Blast is priced at $2.88 in the Aevo pre-trading market, a price that already factors in the risks of the crypto market system, L2 race risks, and market FUD sentiment, but has yet to factor in community opinion.
Community opinion, in turn, depends on the fairness of the airdrop distribution and the consistency of incentives. We need to patiently wait for Blast to announce its airdrop rules in the near future. Given that Blast operates on a points-based airdrop system, its airdrop rules are more transparent and predictable compared to the interactive tx-based airdrop system of Zksync and Layerzero, and it is expected that community opinion will not be as extremely negative as the former two. Currently, the pre-trading valuation of $Blast is $28.8 billion FDV, almost on par with $ZK. And from the fundamental data of Rollup (daily release to L1 tx data quantity, daily release to L1 tx data average scale, daily average non-sequential packaging time interval), it appears that $Blast and $ZK are indeed on the same level.
Based on the above analysis, the opening price of $Blast is likely to fall within the range of $3±10%. The overall trend of the coin price after the opening, whether upwards or downwards, will depend on whether the airdrop rules are accepted by the community.
