Bitcoin Secondary Market Analysis The Big Short

Author: Liu Jiaolian
“The Tale of Two Cities” by Dickens begins with this passage. Perhaps this is also an apt footnote to the “Belief-Denial” stage in which the current BTC secondary market finds itself.


Yesterday [2024.6.28 TeachChain internal reference: Next support level, 55-56k?] mentioned the latest core PCE price inflation data in the US, which fell from 2.8% in April to 2.6% in May, as expected. Although this is one of the key indicators that the Federal Reserve considers when making interest rate decisions, the continued decline in PCE data approaching the 2% target is inconsistent with the recent strong statements from the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts.


What the Federal Reserve is thinking is only clear to itself. The market guesses back and forth, but cannot fathom the Fed’s thoughts.
Seeing a chartist, The Great Martis, drew a double-headed downturn, a catastrophe that is irreversible, really scared people:


The more you see these chartists (or technical analysis enthusiasts) performing, the more you realize how unreliable these things are.
This chart can be completely interpreted in the opposite way: the end of February, April, and June, these are clearly three tests of the $60,000 support. Three bottom tests, is it a surge?
Some may say that the end of February and early March was clearly a breakthrough from below, so why is it a bottom test?
For those who only know how to look at charts and do not understand the basic knowledge of BTC, they are blindfolded donkeys, spinning themselves on the grinding wheel.
In April, BTC had a halving of production. By retracing and adjusting the historical trends before the halving, using the bottom before March as the support axis, it is actually a high bottom, testing the $60,000 bottom, and then fluctuating in the $60,000-70,000 range.
So this shaking of the market is bottom consolidation, not top consolidation.
TeachChain is not saying that the above explanation is correct, but that charts can be interpreted in a seemingly reasonable way whether they are right side up or upside down. In the end, it depends on what you believe in your heart.
This big short also drew a graphic of an epic stock market crash:


People began to realize as early as 2019, or even after 2015, that the world economy was entering a recession and depression.
The miserable scene of the Great Depression in the United States from 1929 to 1933, how many people still remember it?
Compared to white-collar workers who dared not tell their families, put on suits in the morning, put on ties to pretend to go to work, and then went out to pick food from the garbage cans, the severity of the depression today seems to be far from that time?
Is the Federal Reserve not afraid of death until the Yellow River is dry? Without causing a major crash, they will grit their teeth and insist on high interest rates, not retreating at all.
Perhaps you and I still have some time to prepare for the possible financial collapse.
The key and the difficulty lie in knowing where will be destroyed, and where is the refuge.