Author: Cycle Capital
Since the start of the US presidential election, a series of election-related meme tokens have emerged. Particularly with TRUMP as the main representative, the market value reached as high as $775 million after the Trump campaign openly supported cryptocurrency donations. Due to Biden’s more conservative attitude towards crypto, tokens associated with him have received relatively less attention in the market. Following the conviction of Trump in the hush money case, prices of Trump-related tokens dropped while Biden-related meme tokens saw an increase. During the election, who becomes the US president and their public statements on crypto attitudes influence the prices of related tokens.
Candidates’ Attitudes Toward Cryptocurrency
Trump
Trump, in this election, has shifted his previously negative attitude towards crypto and has released a series of crypto-friendly statements, including ensuring the future of the crypto industry and Bitcoin in the US, safeguarding the wallets of 50 million crypto holders, and promising to pardon the founder of Silk Road if elected, among others.
His shift in crypto attitude is not without trace. In late 2022, Trump announced the release of limited edition Trump digital trading cards NFT on truth social and in 2023, issued “Win Trump Prizes” NFT on Polygon. In May 2024, Trump’s campaign team officially accepted cryptocurrency donations as campaign funds, solidifying a crypto-friendly stance.
Biden
Biden’s latest attitude towards cryptocurrency is reflected in the veto of overturning SEC SAB 121 proposal. The core of SAB 121 requires companies holding crypto assets to record customer-held crypto as liabilities on their balance sheets. This has been seen as overly harsh, hindering custody institutions or companies from holding crypto on behalf of clients. Biden’s veto letter stated that overturning SAB 121 would weaken the SEC’s power in accounting affairs and his government would not support measures that harm consumers’ well-being.
Therefore, compared to Trump, Biden’s attitude towards cryptocurrency is more conservative. The next opportunity for Biden to make a statement on crypto will be the FIT 21 bill, which provides a regulatory framework for digital assets and allocates the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) jurisdiction over digital assets based on whether they are “functional,” “non-functional,” or “decentralized.” The bill has passed the House of Representatives and still needs to go through a Senate vote and presidential signature to become law.
SEC’s Attitude Towards Crypto Regulation
During Trump’s tenure from 2016 to 2020, with a negative attitude towards crypto, Jay Clayton was the SEC chairman. Clayton held a cautious approach towards crypto and mainly targeted fraudulent ICO activities and crypto exchange platforms. One of the most notable cases was against Block.one, Ripple Labs, and Telegram (for Ton), with other cases targeting individuals or companies issuing tokens illegally.
In April 2021, Biden appointed Gary Gensler as the SEC chairman. Gensler has stated that he is a “middle-of-the-road minimalist” when it comes to Bitcoin. While there were speculations in the crypto industry that his appointment would be favorable for crypto development, both Gensler and Clayton hold a cautious attitude towards non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies, considering all tokens as securities. This stance seemed to soften on June 5, 2024, but without clear crypto-friendly policies. During Gensler’s tenure, the SEC has had more cases related to crypto compared to Clayton’s term, with a significant increase in cases against exchanges such as Poloniex, Coinbase, Bittrex, Binance, and Kraken. Looking at the number of cases and targets of SEC lawsuits against crypto, Biden’s administration has a more conservative attitude towards crypto.
Election Process
Key Timelines of the Election
From July 15 to July 18, the Republican National Convention decides the Republican candidate and platform. Trump had already secured the Republican nomination earlier.
From August 19 to August 22, the Democratic National Convention decides the Democratic candidate and platform. Biden was confirmed as the candidate.
Debates between Biden and Trump on June 27 and September 10 could have a significant impact on the final election results.
November 5 is the day of the presidential election.
Key Event: Impact of Hush Money Case
Trump was found guilty of all 34 charges in the hush money criminal case. The judge is set to deliver the sentence on July 11, which could potentially include imprisonment and hefty fines. Trump still has the option to appeal the verdict in the hush money case. Even if convicted in the case, it does not legally prevent Trump from continuing to run for US president.
A survey by Ipsos and ABC News in April indicated that with Trump’s conviction, 16% of Trump supporters would reconsider their votes. According to data tracking the latest polling results by racetotheWH, there are currently 8.8% undecided votes, with Trump leading. If Trump is convicted and sentenced, the undecided votes would increase to 17%, with Biden’s support surpassing Trump’s.
The conviction in the hush money case has actually boosted donations for Trump. In April, fundraising amounted to around $76 million, exceeding Biden’s $51 million. In the disclosure by Trump’s team in May, they raised over $400 million, mainly from small donations with an average amount of around $70. The specific amounts will be released by the end of June. It is important to note that during the early stages of the 2020 campaign, Trump’s team had a strong financial position, but towards the end of the campaign, Biden’s team had a better financial standing. While a strong campaign fund can bring advantages, it does not guarantee the final election results.
Importance of Cryptocurrency in the Election (Is there a potential for repeated hype?)
On March 14, a survey by Paradigm showed that 19% of registered US voters have purchased cryptocurrency, indicating that “one-fifth of the country is not a niche group.” Cryptocurrency holders are willing to switch parties.
Swing states are the core battlegrounds in the election. According to polls, the main swing states this year are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with potential swing states including Nevada, North Carolina, and Minnesota.
According to a survey by DGC in May regarding Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Montana, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, 26% of respondents stated that they are concerned about candidates’ positions on cryptocurrency, and 21% said that cryptocurrency is an important issue to consider during the election. 55% are worried that policymakers may stifle innovation through excessive regulation, hence the need for the next president to be crypto-friendly.
According to a survey by CBS News on April 29, voters in the three key swing states of the Rust Belt (Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan) are most concerned about economic issues, particularly growth and inflation. Since Biden took office in the first quarter of 2021, the US GDP has grown by over 8% after adjusting for inflation, but economic growth in the three swing states lags far behind the national average, especially Wisconsin, where GDP has only grown by 3.1% over nearly four years.
To win votes in swing states, economic issues remain core, and it is not ruled out that candidates may mention cryptocurrency again to attract young voters.
Meme Tokens Related to US Election Themes
Meme token prices fluctuate significantly with election themes, posing more risks, including but not limited to: shifts in candidates’ crypto attitudes and campaign slogan changes, and the probability of tokens being listed on exchanges. This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
