In the past week, the on-chain market of the Ethereum mainnet can no longer be described as simply “lively”. With a single statement from “Old Bao” (a nickname for a prominent figure in the crypto community), the already active on-chain market experienced a resurgence. There were one or two waves of activity every day, and the gas fees on the mainnet even soared to around 70 Gwei, making even a simple transaction on the chain quite expensive.
From the perspective of finding concepts and angles, the sentiment of “not picking up each other’s ideas” has spread to the meme market. To describe the recent on-chain market, the term “factional warfare” is more accurate. While the working class sees the weekend as fleeting, for on-chain participants, it is quite saturated and fulfilling.
Various concepts such as the dog of Doge’s founder, Musk’s “Mars City” plan, Trump’s silver coin, and others have emerged one after another with their respective tokens. It seems like it would be a waste of the emotions and liquidity in the on-chain market without introducing new concepts.
However, at this stage of market evolution, new concepts are obviously not enough to satisfy the enthusiasm for PVP (Player vs. Player) trading. The meme market has evolved from “finding concepts” to “exploiting angles”. As soon as a new speculative concept emerges, various tokens with the same name quickly appear, and different perspectives, whether new or old, big or small, take turns to enter the stage.
Just taking the concept of Musk’s “Mars City” that exploded over the weekend as an example, several high market capitalization assets have emerged: $TERMINUS (Mars City name 1), $BAR (Mars City name 2), various spaceships, interstellar hotels, astronaut dogs, etc., not to mention that each token also has different cases for upper and lower case.
It is clear that the phenomenon of “not picking up each other’s ideas” has been subdivided into the meme market. If you buy uppercase, I buy lowercase. If you go for a 3-point increase in D.O.G.E., I go for a 4-point increase in D.O.G.E. Each player promotes their own perspective. The behavior of various experts trying to find angles seems to be a competition for the “ultimate interpretation” of this narrative. It is not until more and more people recognize this perspective that they ultimately win in this upgraded version of PVP. In order not to give others a chance, everyone is going all out.
The rotation of various narratives brings one multi-million market capitalization after another, and various stories of sudden wealth also emerge one after another. However, just as there are “sudden wealth” stories in the on-chain market, there are also “sudden losses” stories.
Exploiting human weaknesses, conspiracy groups also play psychological warfare?
The Fragility of “Narratives”
Even after winning among numerous concepts and angles, Dog players still face many “uncontrollable” threats. Just like the $MISHA token in the “V God’s dog” concept, which went from 0 to a market capitalization of $20 million within a day but then plummeted the next day due to V God’s statement of “I don’t own a dog”. During the rapid decline, holders panic-sold, and gas fees skyrocketed. Along with the price, the dreams of sudden wealth for countless people also fell.
Yes, some so-called “narratives” that arise suddenly often do not hold up. The fragile hype caused by a celebrity’s statement can also be extinguished immediately by another statement.
However, this “fragility of narratives” is precisely what conspiracy groups accurately exploit. They set one trap after another for players during this passionate weekend.
Hardcore Narratives?
Compared to centralized exchanges, first-layer on-chain trading is more transparent and versatile in terms of information, so personal actions are almost transparent to those who are attentive. Therefore, in the on-chain world, the “combat” behavior in trading is more direct and in-your-face.
On Saturday, a token called $DOGGO emerged and its trend was straightforward. In just four hours after launching, its market capitalization approached $20 million while many people were still enjoying their weekend sleep. $DOGGO had already finished its rally.
Upon further investigation, it turned out that $DOGGO was based on an OG narrative: Shibetoshi Nakamoto, the founder of Dogecoin ($DOGE), is known for selling all his $DOGE holdings early on. In this case, the $DOGGO project initially allocated 6.56% of its tokens to Shibetoshi Nakamoto, and he did sell all his $DOGGO tokens. This “sell-off” narrative had been seen in many projects before, but this time, Shibetoshi Nakamoto not only “sold off” but also interacted crazily with $DOGGO-related topics.
In the eyes of attentive observers, Shibetoshi Nakamoto’s interaction is like an ambiguous “endorsement,” and $DOGGO’s straightforward OG narrative adds a touch of conspiracy to it. The smart wallets of those who were tired of fragile narratives and PVP trading quickly bought in. So, even before many people realized it, the price of $DOGGO skyrocketed.
With someone standing up and others buying in, the price rose and the market capitalization surged. It seemed that $DOGGO was not too far from its ultimate goal of being listed. However, the subsequent plot of $DOGGO once again made people realize that the on-chain world is not a gentle utopia, but rather a bloody dark forest.
From Market Manipulation to Community Takeover, the conspiracy behind the rebirth?
Reversals and Counter-Reversals
$DOGGO became hot in less than a day, and Dogecoin’s founder, Shibetoshi Nakamoto, explicitly stated that he is not responsible for any meme coins, thus denying his previous endorsement of $DOGGO.
As soon as these words came out, players who had just learned a lesson from the fragile narrative of $MISHA might have immediately become alert and wondered what to do next. Should they run away? Combined with the continuous FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) comments in the community and the massive sell-off by large wallets, $DOGGO’s trend shifted from a rebound to a downward spiral.
However, this time $DOGGO did not continue to decline until it reached zero. Instead, after many people panic-sold, it quickly made a V-shaped rebound, and the price immediately returned to the level before the drop. Even on the following day, it announced that it had already undergone a Community Takeover (CTO), and the FUD crash during the night seemed to have never happened. Even after the announcement of the CTO, $DOGGO’s price continued to experience a second decline, as if the CTO was also a lie designed by the conspiracy group to deceive people. Retail investors panicked, and $DOGGO’s market capitalization dropped to around $6 million, similar to the sharp decline that occurred during the night.
However, just when many people thought that $DOGGO was truly finished this time, yes, $DOGGO’s price once again reversed. This time, the market capitalization rallied from $6 million and broke new highs in the range of $20-30 million.
It seems that $DOGGO experienced multiple reversals in just two days, from a conspiracy group to a community takeover “rebirth,” gradually building trust within the community. The continuous price increase is also a result of the “power of the community.”
But is it really that simple?
Not a rebirth, but more like a washout?
After the drama with $DOGGO, some people pointed out that this event is not as simple as it seems on the surface. The so-called “rebirth” of $DOGGO is more like a series of reversals and “washouts,” and the community takeover is just an excuse for the conspiracy group to deeply wash out investors.
On-chain player @Mirro7777 stated that he was one of the targets of this $DOGGO washout. He sold about 1% of his $DOGGO chips during the deep decline caused by negative news coordinated by the developers in the middle of the night, turning from profit to loss.
At the same time, user @CryptoRugMunch, who has a good understanding of conspiracy groups, bluntly stated that the fancy operations of $DOGGO are a textbook case of conspiracy groups playing psychological warfare:
First, crash the price and spread FUD to make retail investors panic-sell → Announce a CTO to temporarily repair the price → Another deep drop to completely shatter retail investors’ confidence → Retail investors panic-sell and exit, then directly rally and break the previous high.
@CryptoRugMunch also mentioned that the conspiracy group behind $DOGGO had never left and that each time they acted was to make retail investors surrender. Unless you enjoy being a victim of psychological warfare, there are better projects in the market for you to choose from.
Summary
The phenomenon of “splitting” due to issues of profit distribution or differing consensus is not new. The hard forks of BTC and ETH in the past have similarities in essence. However, unlike hard forks, which usually have a “decent” reason, the reasons for the “splitting” of Memecoins are more direct: purely for profit. When trading the same concept, why should I pick up the token you are selling?
In the collision of consensus, different opportunities arise, and the confrontation between conspiracy groups and community takeovers is currently the more recognized mode of conflict in the meme market.
The battle between lowercase and uppercase tokens proves that the power of the community also has the potential for sudden wealth, igniting a wave of enthusiasm for the narrative of community takeovers.
But it’s not about rebirth; it’s more like a washout?
After the incident with $DOGGO, some people pointed out that this event is not as simple as it seems on the surface. The so-called “rebirth” of $DOGGO is more like a series of reversals and “washouts,” and the community takeover is just an excuse for the conspiracy group to deeply wash out investors.
On-chain player @Mirro7777 stated that he was one of the targets of this $DOGGO washout. He sold about 1% of his $DOGGO chips during the deep decline caused by negative news coordinated by the developers in the middle of the night, turning from profit to loss.
At the same time, user @CryptoRugMunch, who has a good understanding of conspiracy groups, bluntly stated that the fancy operations of $DOGGO are a textbook case of conspiracy groups playing psychological warfare:
First, crash the price and spread FUD to make retail investors panic-sell → Announce a CTO to temporarily repair the price → Another deep drop to completely shatter retail investors’ confidence → Retail investors panic-sell and exit, then directly rally and break the previous high.
@CryptoRugMunch also mentioned that the conspiracy group behind $DOGGO had never left and that each time they acted was to make retail investors surrender. Unless you enjoy being a victim of psychological warfare, there are better projects in the market for you to choose from.
Summary
The phenomenon of “splitting” due to issues of profit distribution or differing consensus is not new. The hard forks of BTC and ETH in the past have similarities in essence. However, unlike hard forks, which usually have a “decent” reason, the reasons for the “splitting” of Memecoins are more direct: purely for profit. When trading the same concept, why should I pick up the token you are selling?
In the collision of consensus, different opportunities arise, and the confrontation between conspiracy groups and community takeovers is currently the more recognized mode of conflict in the meme market.
The battle between lowercase and uppercase tokens proves that the power of the community also has the potential for sudden wealth, igniting a wave of enthusiasm for the narrative of community takeovers.
But it’s not about rebirth; it’s more like a washout?
After the incident with $DOGGO, some people pointed out that this event is not as simple as it seems on the surface. The so-called “rebirth” of $DOGGO is more like a series of reversals and “washouts,” and the community takeover is just an excuse for the conspiracy group to deeply wash out investors.
On-chain player @Mirro7777 stated that he was one of the targets of this $DOGGO washout. He sold about 1% of his $DOGGO chips during the deep decline caused by negative news coordinated by the developers in the middle of the night, turning from profit to loss.
At the same time, user @CryptoRugMunch, who has a good understanding of conspiracy groups, bluntly stated that the fancy operations of $DOGGO are a textbook case of conspiracy groups playing psychological warfare:
First, crash the price and spread FUD to make retail investors panic-sell → Announce a CTO to temporarily repair the price → Another deep drop to completely shatter retail investors’ confidence → Retail investors panic-sell and exit, then directly rally and break the previous high.
@CryptoRugMunch also mentioned that the conspiracy group behind $DOGGO had never left and that each time they acted was to make retail investors surrender. Unless you enjoy being a victim of psychological warfare, there are better projects in the market for you to choose from.
The market environment is constantly changing, but the fact that the market is a zero-sum game remains unchanged. Adapt to the situation flexibly, do not be blinded by survivorship bias, and do not blindly go all-in. Always remember that losing money is the norm. I wish you well.
