Authored by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Recently, there has been a popular article titled “How to Get Through Historical Garbage Time.”
What is historical garbage time?
In essence, it refers to moments in history when economic laws are violated, and individuals find it difficult to reverse the situation, with the overall trend seemingly destined for failure.
For example, in Japan, the thirty years of economic stagnation following the burst of the bubble in the 1990s, where young people lacked opportunities, and both national and personal development hit a ceiling.
For example, the period of stagflation in the United States from 1970 to 1982, characterized by high inflation rates, high unemployment, and low economic growth coexisting.
For example, the Soviet Union from 1979 to 1989, extending even to present-day Russia.
A speck of dust in the era can feel like a mountain on an individual’s head.
In the face of the larger trend, individuals are always inconsequential. Warren Buffett earning the title “Oracle of Omaha” is due to being born in the US and investing in American stocks; the rise of China’s wealthy class rode on the winds of China’s reform and opening up over the past 40 years; some individuals garnering substantial returns through investing in altcoins/MEME coins is because the bullish trend in Bitcoin stirs market sentiment, attracting incremental funds…
But if the entire market or country is in a downturn, individual efforts remain futile.
In the investment market, “garbage time” stands out vividly.
Taking Bitcoin as an example, most of its gains are concentrated in a few months, with the upticks concentrated in a few days within those months.
Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors recently mentioned that most of the annual gains in Bitcoin occur within 10 days each year, stating, “If you remove the top 10 days of performance in a year, Bitcoin actually yields a negative return.”
All the waiting is merely for those crucial ten or so days.
So, how should individuals deal with garbage time in the investment market?
In this regard, A-share investors may have significant experiential insights.
The first approach is to lie down.
This is the path chosen by many Japanese people after the burst of the economic bubble—under the weight of the era’s challenges, individual efforts seem utterly insignificant. In a stance of resignation, one can lie flat to embrace the moment, accepting the reality and changing oneself.
In the words of the cryptocurrency community, step outside, return to your original life, break free from the clutches of the candlestick charts, go outdoors, date attractive individuals, gather with friends…
You see, whether Binance/OKX and other exchanges remind you daily, “Touch Grass” (go outside and feel the grass, break free from the echo chamber of the internet, explore the real world).
At this point, detaching from frequent trading, investing in core assets like Bitcoin through dollar-cost averaging, and holding cash like USDT for continuous financial planning can be a blessing in life.
The second approach is to moisturize.
For instance, in 1990s Japan, numerous companies ventured abroad, creating a second Japan overseas. Similarly, many individuals turned to China for opportunities during non-garbage-time markets.
The same applies to investments. When A-shares are in a slump, numerous A-share investors shifted their focus to US stocks and the crypto market.
In 2024, as even the crypto market faces garbage time, investors are directing their attention and liquidity towards US stocks.
This is not speculation but the current reality. The US stock market has absorbed a significant amount of liquidity from the crypto market this year. Many crypto billionaires with net worth reaching the billions boldly invested in companies like Nvidia and Tesla, reaping substantial rewards. It also reflects another fact: this year, the overall wealth effect in the crypto sphere is far less than in the US stock market.
The third method is to roll.
When the size of the pie remains constant, to acquire a larger share, one must seize slices from others’ hands—that’s rolling. It’s about being ruthless not only towards others but primarily towards oneself.
Rolling in the crypto market typically involves on-chain PVP and exploiting opportunities.
For small retail investors, there are greater opportunities on-chain. After all, in exchanges, your counterpart could be a market maker, an exchange, or a project team. However, in the relatively clear chip structure on the blockchain, everyone can potentially become a major player through early participation and then resort to convincing fellow community members to complete liquidity exits.
However, as on-chain activities grow more intense, the lifespan of each “shiba
