Matrixport Research Institute’s latest study shows the following key points of interest:
BTC remains the best-performing asset of the year, surpassing NASDAQ by a wide margin. The upcoming U.S. presidential election continues to be a bullish factor for BTC, with current data indicating a higher likelihood of a Trump victory. The anticipated rate cuts, which were expected to benefit this year’s performance, may now be challenging to materialize, as BTC volatility remains relatively low. Despite entering a consolidation phase for the summer, BTC continues to outperform other assets year-to-date, with returns far exceeding NASDAQ (+22%) and the S&P 500 (+16%). Current market sentiment suggests many cryptocurrency participants are inclined to wait for opportune moments to enter BTC positions.
The U.S. presidential election year typically favors stocks and BTC. Matrix on Target’s analysis of BTC performance during the 2012, 2016, and 2020 U.S. presidential elections indicated significant bullish trends in July, with BTC showing returns nearing 36% in those election years. Interestingly, BTC has risen by 39% year-to-date, consistent with its simulated performance during election years.
The expected benefits of rate cuts may prove challenging to realize this year, keeping volatility relatively low. Despite previous bull markets experiencing significant consolidation phases, BTC has not seen fluctuations exceeding 20% in the past 30 days. Effective communication by the Federal Reserve has successfully prevented further declines in BTC prices.
Concerns have arisen over multiple transfers of Mt.Gox tokens, contributing to market panic about potential sell-offs. Recent actions by the German government, transferring over $195 million worth of BTC to various cryptocurrency exchanges, have further intensified anxiety. Additionally, Arkham Information reported a transfer of 237 BTC, valued at approximately $13.67 million, from a U.S. government wallet address (starting with 349c6) to an address beginning with bc1qvc on July 4th. These developments, coupled with fears of market liquidation, have led to sharp short-term price fluctuations for BTC.
While monetary policy and the U.S. presidential election are seen as positive factors, diversifying investments with options, holding small amounts of risk assets, and investing in debt-linked tokens are considered prudent strategies.
The aforementioned insights are derived from Matrix on Target. For further details, please contact us.
Disclaimer: Trading digital assets carries significant risks. This article does not constitute investment advice. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of individual circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.
