As the 2024 US presidential election draws near, cryptocurrencies, as an emerging and controversial field, are gradually becoming a focus of attention for voters. How do American voters view cryptocurrencies in the political landscape? What are their opinions on owning cryptocurrencies? These two topics are becoming increasingly important leading up to the 2024 US presidential election.
According to a survey conducted by Grayscale on voters for the 2024 US presidential election (collected from April 30 to May 2, 2024), prior to the presidential debate between Biden and Trump in June 2024, voters expressed a sense of uncertainty and concern about significant risks. These risks include ongoing conflicts in multiple regions, deep polarization in political discourse, and persistent inflation in the US economy.
The two presidential candidates have painted contrasting visions for the future of the United States, and nearly half of registered voters admit that they would prefer to replace the existing candidates if given the opportunity. In this volatile political atmosphere, the importance of crypto assets to voters is becoming increasingly apparent, as evidenced by the latest survey conducted by The Harris Poll for Grayscale. The following are the main highlights:
1. Given the macroeconomic trends and the increasing maturity of Bitcoin itself, we observe that the relevance of Bitcoin is gradually increasing. Currently, nearly half of the voters (47%) expect their investment portfolios to include cryptocurrencies, an increase from 40% at the end of last year.
2. Consistent with the results of the initial stage of this year’s survey, participants still consider inflation as a core issue in the election (28%). This phenomenon once again confirms the potential value of assets like Bitcoin, which have transparent and fixed supply limits.
3. Trump actively advocated for cryptocurrencies during his campaign, and recently, the cryptocurrency bills FIT21 and SAB 121 have gained support from bipartisan members of Congress. The data from The Harris Poll further confirms that cryptocurrencies have become a shared focus of attention for both parties, with ownership rates being relatively close for Republicans (18%) and Democrats (19%).
4. Will November be the “Bitcoin election month”? Voter interest in cryptocurrencies is growing. Grayscale believes that due to macro developments and the increasing maturity of Bitcoin as an asset, people’s attention towards Bitcoin is continuously increasing. In the past six months since the first phase of this survey, voter interest in Bitcoin has significantly increased (41% vs. 34% in November 2023) due to geopolitical tensions, inflation, and dollar risks.
It is worth noting that 28% of voters consider inflation to be a core issue in the current election, further highlighting the potential value of assets like Bitcoin, which have transparent and strict supply limits.
In addition, Grayscale added a series of questions to the survey to gain a deeper understanding of voters’ perspectives. The results of The Harris Poll show that significant events related to Bitcoin, such as the approval of the US Bitcoin ETF in January 2024 and the Bitcoin halving in April 2024, have increased voter interest in investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (18% and 20% respectively). The approval of the Bitcoin ETF, in particular, has sparked interest from 9% of retired voters in investing in Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies.
So far, 2024 has been a remarkable year for Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin reached an all-time high on March 13, 2024. Will November be the “Bitcoin election month”?
Voter interest in cryptocurrencies is not limited to Bitcoin alone but extends to a broader range of crypto assets. This interest is reflected both in general interest levels and in investors’ intentions to invest. Nearly one-third of voters (32%) say they are more interested in learning about cryptocurrency investments or actually investing in cryptocurrencies since the beginning of this year. Compared to November 2023, voters are also more likely to see cryptocurrencies as a good long-term investment opportunity (23% vs. 19%) and increasingly expect some of their investment portfolios to include cryptocurrencies (47% vs. 40%). This trend clearly indicates the growing importance of cryptocurrencies in the minds of investors.
Cryptocurrencies are a political issue of shared concern for both parties, despite Trump’s more active embrace of cryptocurrencies during the campaign. Both Republicans (18%) and Democrats (19%) have similar ownership rates. When evaluating which political party is more favorable towards the cryptocurrency industry, opinions differ. An equal percentage of voters (30% each) believe that both the Democratic and Republican parties hold the most favorable positions on cryptocurrency policies. These survey results indicate that support for cryptocurrencies is not clearly biased towards any one political party but maintains a balance across the entire political spectrum. This view aligns with the recent bipartisan support for the SAB 121 resolution in Congress, which allows financial institutions to act as custodians for digital assets, potentially increasing accessibility for cryptocurrency investors.
However, it is worth noting that Republican voters tend to see inflation and economic issues as the most urgent challenges facing the United States (54%, compared to 33% of Democratic voters). Therefore, Republicans seem to place relatively more emphasis on issues closely related to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, such as inflation and the state of the economy. In contrast, Democrats appear to be more concerned with issues such as gun violence, climate change, and income inequality. This difference may explain why Trump has emphasized the importance of cryptocurrencies in recent campaign activities.
The United States is facing multiple choices involving macroeconomic policy issues such as government deficits and debt, inflation and the independence of the Federal Reserve, and the role of the United States on the global stage. The differences between the two candidates on these key issues will undoubtedly have profound effects on the US dollar and Bitcoin.
As voter interest in cryptocurrencies continues to heat up, the future government’s attitude towards this emerging digital asset is highly anticipated. This is particularly important for young voters, as a whopping 62% of Generation Z and millennial voters firmly believe that cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology will shape the future of finance.
As November approaches, a trend becomes increasingly evident: cryptocurrencies are gradually becoming an issue that policymakers and candidates for the 2024 election cannot ignore.
Methodology:
This survey was conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of Grayscale from April 30 to May 2, 2024, using their comprehensive product, Harris On Demand, to survey 1,768 US adults (aged 18 and older) who plan to participate in the 2024 presidential election. The data was weighted by age, gender, race/ethnicity, region, education level, marital status, household size, household income, employment status, and internet propensity as necessary to make it proportionate to the actual population, and compared to the “Phase One” data collected at the end of November 2023 based on the same parameters. The accuracy of the sample data in this study is within a confidence interval of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. This confidence interval will be wider for the target population of the survey.
