Recently, the news of the well-known media organization “Blue Fox Notes” planning to close its knowledge community has been widely circulated online.
According to the Blue Fox Notes team, they have successfully captured the major trends in the previous two cycles through fundamental value analysis, which has provided a lot of valuable insights for users. However, in this cycle, their previous value analysis approach seems to be ineffective, leading the team to decide to shut down their operations on the knowledge community.
In the comments on this news, many expressed regret and also showed helplessness and pessimism towards “value analysis.” Some even commented, “Instead of investing in ‘value coins,’ it’s better to gamble on ‘MEME coins.'”
Blue Fox Notes is one of the media organizations in the industry that I highly respect. Many of their articles during the previous DeFi boom have provided me with valuable inspiration and thoughts. It is a serious and insightful media outlet. What is even more admirable is that, despite the challenging environment in China, Blue Fox Notes has been consistently producing valuable content.
Therefore, I also feel regretful about their decision to close this communication channel.
However, I disagree with the pessimistic sentiment towards “value analysis” in the comments section.
In the past two years, we can clearly see two unique phenomena in the crypto ecosystem:
Firstly, there are a large number of tokens that have high circulating market values even before they have truly demonstrated their utility and developed their ecosystems. Some users have compared the difference in token valuation between this cycle and the previous cycle: during the previous cycle, the market value of many value coins was only around a few million dollars when they were first listed, while in this cycle, many tokens reached a market value of billions of dollars as soon as they were listed. This greatly overshadows their future upside potential, resulting in a lack of upward momentum even in a bullish market. Many “value coins” fall into this category.
Secondly, the MEME coin market has been booming, one after another.
In this trend, MEME coins have flourished more than ever before, appearing on various blockchains, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and BASE.
These MEME coins not only have astonishing price increases, but also attract players from various ecosystems. Unlike in the past, when only players in the Ethereum and Dogecoin ecosystems had the opportunity to catch limited MEME coins.
In this situation, it seems that as long as one captures the momentum of any MEME coin, retail investors can reap substantial returns. Investing in MEME coins requires no technical barriers and avoids being manipulated by institutional investors. This is much more cost-effective compared to participating in so-called “value coins.”
There are many reasons that have led to these phenomena. In my opinion, one important reason is that Ethereum, which monopolizes the application scenarios in the crypto ecosystem, has not produced innovative and disruptive applications or scenes that became popular during these two years of development.
This has forced funds to constantly search for MEME coins that have emotional value and can quickly attract users, making MEME coins the object of pursuit.
I prefer to take a longer-term perspective on these phenomena. Because I always believe that only by using a long-term perspective can we filter out the short-term noise and capture the fundamental vitality and potential of the crypto ecosystem.
From a long-term perspective, to promote the growth of the crypto ecosystem and drive the appreciation of crypto assets, we need real ecological applications. Only applications can solve the problems in the crypto ecosystem and provide sustained value to users.
The majority of MEME coins provide emotional value, but emotions change over time, and very few MEME coins can provide sustained value to users’ changing emotions. So, most MEME coins will eventually disappear, and the few that can survive are either those with irreplaceable historical value or those that evolve into value coins with application value – returning to value and fundamentals.
Therefore, I believe that the prices and values of most MEME coins, which currently seem lively, are difficult to sustain in the long term. We should not assume that the majority of them have sustained and stable value just because they are currently popular.
On the other hand, many value coins that currently seem overpriced lack the empowerment and transformation of value. Some prices have been artificially inflated, but they still have inherent value, and many projects have good intrinsic value and can develop steadily and sustainably. I believe that once there is a suitable opportunity in the future, they will eventually break out.
As for the stories of “XXX getting rich with MEME,” I suggest approaching them with caution.
I don’t believe that most people can get rich and truly hold onto that wealth by trading MEME coins. It is difficult for ordinary investors to grasp the appropriate buying and selling points in the significant fluctuations of MEME coins. Even if they are fortunate enough to seize such an opportunity, very few will heavily invest in MEME coins – betting on such coins is no different from gambling.
So, let’s treat MEME coins as a game and participate with an attitude of entertainment and humor. If we can still gain a small fortune that brings joy, that’s great.
Ultimately, the confidence to move forward with a hundredfold increase in wealth, steadily and for a long time, still relies on value coins, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, which make up the majority of investment portfolios.
