Certainly! Here’s the rewritten article:
Original Author: 加密韋馱 (X: @thecryptoskanda)
Even seasoned investors know the drill: whenever the market takes a downturn, fingers point at the lack of attraction for Web2 users, attributing the absence of fresh capital influx. This narrative, termed “Mass Adoption,” insists that Crypto’s “Web3” products must cater to Web2’s profit-agnostic users.
This logic is akin to saying, “African children starve because you waste food in China” — emotionally resonant but devoid of logic.
Mass Adoption – Understanding who “Mass” really is.
Who exactly is the “MASS” — the public? It’s not simply traditional Web2 users — that’s a misconception. “Mass” comprises a diverse group of categorizable individuals.
A blind person not driving a domestically produced electric car isn’t due to lack of support for local goods but rather because they lack a driver’s license (there’s no demand). Anything sustaining user interest does so because it meets irreplaceable needs and offers unique solutions. This applies to cars and, similarly, to Crypto.
Regardless of agreement, Crypto has its limits. Its features (be it privacy or decentralization) stem from its core value — permissionlessness, which isn’t practical for most people on Earth. Permissionlessness primarily counters banking, governmental, and corporate restrictions: if banks restrict account opening or payments, governments forbid certain investments or gambling, and big companies censor speech, individuals gravitate towards Crypto.
Those with demands aren’t the majority; most are conditioned livestock of the system. They are arbitrage-savvy, anti-establishment “social outliers” — characteristics I term “merchants” (of course, personalities aren’t black-and-white but a spectrum).
They may not necessarily engage in commerce or even be wealthy, but they’re inherently a minority essential for maintaining dominance.
These individuals “speak business.” If the average person believes securing a position and a good job involves wholesale selling oneself to a “unit,” then Crypto’s audience consists of those who price their time, energy, networks, and resources at maximum value. These are people primarily driven by profit.
Have we possibly already Mass Adopted?
In this spectrum of “merchants,” how many haven’t encountered Crypto?
According to UN data, if every global adult annually dedicates 10% of the average income of $23,000 to Crypto, that amounts to $18.4 trillion from 8 billion people worldwide. With Binance’s March 2024 spot trading volume at $1.12 trillion, annual spot transactions alone exceed $13 trillion. This indicates more than 30% capacity, including other exchanges, potentially surpassing these figures long ago.
Of course, this is an average; focusing on the top 10% global income earners who control 52% of global income, approximately 800 million people, Crypto.com estimates 520 million global cryptocurrency users by 2023, leaving roughly 30% capacity. Once this 30% is closed, we might witness an industry-like annual growth (around 4.7%), similar to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate.
If you believe there aren’t new users now, it’s because the market is nearing its actual TAM (Total Addressable Market) limit. Educated individuals in 2024 not hearing about Bitcoin is surprising.
Do you still want to “send movies to the countryside” for “Mass Adopting” Web2 users? Those likely to be adopted have probably already encountered cryptocurrencies.
Stock markets are never the issue; high-frequency users are.
With experience in the industry, both online and offline, it’s one of the world’s largest industries. Applying “Mass Adoption” logic to the industry overall, there’s no incremental market; all affluent individuals globally are potential markets due to their gambling inclination. The industry’s growth mirrors global inflation.
Offline sectors are regional; crypto is global, unaffected by regional tourism. Hence, Crypto and the industry logic are congruent. A bad year for Crypto isn’t due to lack of new users, akin to casinos not needing foot traffic but rather reduced existing user activity and lower betting frequency.
Casino-goers are primarily two types: those proficient and addicted to a few games like slots, baccarat, mainly seniors (frequent visitors), and VIP lounge patrons, constituting 80% of the casino (understood as high rollers).
Similarly, Crypto’s growth involves cultivating high-frequency users and big spenders.
Mass Admission, not Mass Adoption
How many understand slot machine scoring? How many play baccarat? Learning these costs more than learning to trade coins: complex rules, the courage to gamble, entry barriers (membership, betting).
Why don’t casinos have an “adoption” issue? Because they offer irreplaceable solutions to an irreplaceable need (gambling). Casinos explicitly tell customers: you’re here to win money. To enter a casino and win money, you must learn its rules. Casinos admit you to gamble, not to cater to your other identities’ “daily needs” (Adoption).
It’s hard to imagine a casino saying, “We aim to create a social network for gamblers to spend more at our whiskey bar rather than come here to win money” — the industry’s evolution is at most from offline to online, accepting various payment methods, cooler slot themes, and enhancing UX.
Similarly, Crypto/Web3 needs to explicitly state: “Come here to make money!” Admitting the world’s “merchants” to try and profit via Crypto, under the condition of learning Crypto’s rules. Their profit mechanism involves financial games (trading, staking, borrowing), all centered around this logic.
Those who don’t follow the rules (e.g., starting projects without understanding theories, merely following KOLs to hype coins), and those who play poorly and go bankrupt, are eliminated. The remaining adept form the muscle memory of high-frequency users, with the best among them invited to VIP lounges. Construction involves enabling more people to participate in trials faster, with more diverse and flashy trials, higher total bets, sustained gambling, and offering identity display for gamblers (casinos sell watches and luxury, Crypto sells NFTs?). This encompasses not only project selection but also growth.
Conclusion
Mass Admission is the core logic for my project approach, possibly the foremost consideration. Applying this logic, contemplate why memes, inscriptions, and Solana trend, rather than the entire ETH series (excluding Base), VC coins, RWAs? Why do we lack developers more than “users”?
I trust you’ll find varied answers.
[Original Article Link]
