Author: Crypto Wei Duo, Crypto KOL
Source: X, @thecryptoskanda
I must disagree with the views of C. I firmly believe in shorting Friendtech V2, and I believe that the current V2 is simply a cover-up for Paladin’s retreat, retreating back to the three-plate theory framework. FT combines the three plates of assistance, dividends, and splitting for growth. In my fourth theory on the three plates, I pointed out the flaws in FT:
– Stagnation in splitting: The splitting plate, which is based on the personal influence of KOL, has a splitting limit, one per person. Once it approaches the limit of the CT population, it will stagnate.
– Market beta change: The new splitting plate provides higher returns, such as inscriptions, dogecoin, and pump.
– Stock flooding: There is no effective mechanism to lock the selling pressure of keys through capital lock-up or sunk costs.
– Anticipated collapse: This goes without saying.
So, does the new version solve these problems? Not really!
– Stagnation in splitting: They abandoned Key and changed to Club, which has a taste similar to Ubank turning to Nebulas in style. However, unlike Pump, which is based on memes, Club still relies on the personal influence of KOL. The Twitter push of Rugcoin community has no memory, but the Club key has directly gone bankrupt with a sharp drop, just like Key. Therefore, the splitting speed will end up repeating the same mistakes.
– Market beta: The situation has worsened, with more splitting plates on the market than at the end of last year.
– Stock flooding: The issue is solved by using the dual pool after the token is released. Everyone knows what happened during the DeFi summer. I have mentioned in the assistance plate that this does not solve the problem of orderly exit. Once the token price and Club trading volume decline, it will be a triple kill. There is no sunk cost or reinvestment cost that should be present in the dividends plate.
– Anticipated: This is the only temporary improvement. It can only be said that being trapped for a long time comes from a deep sense of attachment and a solid community.
Finally, the emergence of PumpFun and its underlying logic framework is a disaster for FT at the intergenerational level.
What FT is currently doing is actually a subset of Pump. Pump solves the problem of FT assets being washed out without subsequent liquidity at a certain FDV, and connects the plates – low liquidity AMM market – CEX liquidity conversion path. What will ultimately kill FT will definitely not be related to farcaster, but it will definitely be due to Pump.
