Yesterday (18 JUN), the US May retail sales rate, dubbed as “terrifying data” by the market, recorded a lower-than-expected 0.1%. Additionally, the previous figure was revised down from 0% to -0.2%. Following the data release, US bond yields slightly decreased, reversing the gains from the previous day, while the three major stock indices closed slightly higher. On the other hand, several Federal Reserve officials expressed conservative views, stating that it may take “a few more months” or “a few quarters” to see data supporting a rate cut.
In the realm of digital currencies, all eyes were on Ethereum in the past day. The first notable development was the SEC’s conclusion of its investigation into the Ethereum 2.0 blockchain ecosystem. ConsenSys, a key Ethereum developer, announced on Twitter, “The SEC enforcement division has informed us that they will be concluding their investigation into Ethereum 2.0. This means that the SEC will not be charging Ethereum sales as securities transactions.” This news was perceived as a significant positive, driving a rebound in the price of Ether, which rose over 3% intra-day.
Furthermore, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart suggested that Ethereum futures may be launched before July 4, attracting traders’ interest once again. Cryptocurrency analyst Lark Davis highlighted data from Glassnode showing that Ethereum exchange balances have reached their lowest point in eight years, with only 10% of ETH currently in circulation on exchanges. He also pointed out that if Ethereum futures ETFs begin trading in the next two weeks, a large influx of institutional funds will enter the market, signaling a potential massive supply shock.
In the options market, influenced by macro news, the implied volatility curve for ETH options flattened and rose, reaching around 65% overall. Bullish options trading was active, with significant transactions including the purchase of a total of 30,500 contracts of the forward 27 SEP 24-4000-C, as well as a single purchase of 7,000 contracts of the 28 JUN 24-4000-C for opening positions. Weekly bullish options also saw increased retail interest due to price gains, causing the smile curve to tilt towards bullish options overall.
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